In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.72/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.69/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ARS (+1.2%), COP (+0.3%) and IDR (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the CZK (-0.8%), RON (-0.7%) and BGN (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

• ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller has noted that the central bank can afford to keep interest rates steady next week.
• He noted that inflation is hovering close to the bank’s 2% target and that the regional economy is showing resilience.
• He remarked that it is “reasonable right now to take the time and monitor the economic data as it comes in the following months and take any different decisions if necessary”.
• Muller added that the ECB’s upcoming projections are unlikely to differ much from those released in June. 
• ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn commented that the ECB should not be complacent about downside risks to prices. 
• ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus also highlighted the risks to the economy and to inflation as still tilted to the downside.

• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to start interviewing candidates on Friday to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
• There are currently 11 contenders in the running.

• The first of series of labour data out this week is the JOLTS job openings data for July, due out today.
• Job openings are likely to have declined to 7.382m in July, from 7.437m in June.
• The data comes ahead of the private-sector ADP employment report tomorrow; private payrolls are likely to have increased by 68k in August, following an increase of 104k in July.
• The non-farm payrolls (NFP) for August will be in the spotlight on Friday; NFP are expected to have increased, by 75k, up from an increase of 73k in July.
• The Fed will keep a close eye on this week’s data ahead of its FOMC interest rate decision on 17 September; the Fed is largely expected to cut the Fed funds are at that meeting.

• Investors are also likely to keep a close eye on the latest Fed Beige Book, due out this evening.
• The Beige Book is expected to show that economic activity has picked up modestly since mid-July. 
• While regional Fed surveys point to a further slowdown in manufacturing, the services sector, which is largely shielded from tariffs, has continued to strengthen.

• Locally, the S&P Global industry-wide PMI for August is due out today; the index is currently around the 50-pt benchmark, at 50.3.
• The BER business confidence for Q3:25 is also on the cards; consumer confidence improved to 40 in Q2:25.

• Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 7.6% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and up by 34.6% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $68.96/bbl; ($69.14/bbl*).
• Gold is at $3534/oz ($3533/oz*).
• SA CDS 176bps*, Brazil 140bps* and Turkey 271bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.26%*, German bund at 2.78%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.71%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.61%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

• 09h15: SA S&P Global industry-wide PMI (August)
• 10h00: Eurozone HCOB services and composite PMI (August – final)
• 10h30: UK S&P Global services and composite PMI (August – final)
• 11h00: Eurozone PPI (July)
• 12h00: SA BER business confidence index (Q3:25)
• 13h00: US MBA mortgage applications (29 August)
• 16h00: US JOLTS job openings (July), factory orders (July), durable goods orders (July – final)
• 20h00: US Fed Beige Book

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