In the loop 31 August 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is steady this morning, at R6.15/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.16/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the KRW (+0.5%), TWD (+0.3%) and MYR (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.5%), ZAR (-1.1%) and PLN (-0.8%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: the broader conflict remains unresolved; mediators from Qatar, Pakistan and Oman continued efforts to bring Washington and Tehran back to negotiations.
Tehran maintained that any lasting settlement would require the US to return to the terms of the June memorandum of understanding.

G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will meet in Asheville, North Carolina, for talks on key global economic and financial issues today and tomorrow.

Central bank watch: the Bank of Canada is like hold its policy rate at 2.25% on Wednesday as core inflation remains contained and the labour market continues to show signs of growth.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely raise rates again on Wednesday as it continues to withdraw stimulus.

The Eurozone CPI report for August will be the key data release in the region this week (tomorrow).
Headline CPI is expected to have increased to 3.3% y/y in August, from 2.9% y/y in July.
The headline increase is likely to illustrate the broad impact of the energy shock on the Eurozone economy.
Core CPI is expected at 2.5% y/ in August, matching July's increase.
The region's unemployment rate for July, also due out tomorrow, is expected to have remained unchanged, at 6.3%.
Retail sales for July are scheduled for release on Friday and is expected to have increased by 1.1% y/y, following a 0.7% y/y increase in June.
The UK Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey for August is scheduled for release on Friday.
Policymakers at the BOE will watch the survey closely for signals on inflation persistence risks.

The US ISM manufacturing PMI for August is due out tomorrow and is likely to have slipped to 55.2, from 55.6 in July.
The JOLTS job openings data for July, also due for release tomorrow, likely slipped to 7.313 million in July, from 7.359 million in June.
The non-farm payrolls for August are due for release on Friday; payrolls are expected to have increased by 55k in August, after having declined by 23k in July.
The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.1%.
The Fed's Beige book is due out on Wednesday; it is expected to point to a continued pickup in economic activity, with the improvement particularly evident in manufacturing.
The US ISM services PMI for August is due out on Thursday and is likely to have remained steady, at 54.1.
The trade balance, also due out on Thursday, is likely to see the deficit widening to $90.1bn in July, from a deficit of $73.3bn in June.

Locally, the M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for July are scheduled for release today.
The July trade balance is also due for release today; the trade surplus is expected to have narrowed to R15.0bn in July, from a surplus of R17.8bn in June.
The BER manufacturing PMI for August is due for release tomorrow; the index likely increased to 47.0 in August, from 46.8 in July.
The August Naamsa vehicle sales are also scheduled for release tomorrow; vehicle sales increased by 11.9% y/y in July.
The BER releases the business confidence index for Q3:26 on Wednesday; the index is expected to have improved to 42 in Q3:26, from 39 in Q2:26.
The industry-wide PMI for August is due out on Thursday; the index is currently in expansion, at 50.3.
Electricity production and consumption for July are due for release on Thursday.

Brent crude oil is currently at $90.64/bbl; ($89.31/bbl*).
Gold is at $4434/oz ($4455/oz*).
SA CDS 115bps*, Brazil 120bps* and Turkey 217bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.71%*, German bund at 3.27%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.71%*, SA's R2035 at 8.52%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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