In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is trading at R16.42/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.34/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+1.0%), BRL (+0.8%) and CLP (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the IDR (-0.4%), THB (-0.2%) and MYR (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

• Iran war: the first non-Iranian oil tanker has passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire was announced, according to ship-tracking data.
• US President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer have discussed plans to address the continued blockage of the Strait.
• The two "agreed that now there is a ceasefire in place and agreement to open the Strait, we are at the next stage of finding a resolution", according to Downing Street.
• "The leaders discussed the need for a practical plan to get shipping moving again as quickly as possible", and agreed to speak again.
• Trump issued a warning against imposing a toll for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The European Union said that freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz must be ensured with "no payment or toll whatsoever".

• IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the IMF will lower its global growth forecasts because of the Iran war.
• She noted that, before the war, the IMF was on the way to upgrade its global growth forecast for 2026, which stood at 3.3% in the IMF's January update; now, her message to policymakers is: “Buckle up”.
• Georgieva said that this major supply shock will test the resilience of a world with limited scope for fiscal support.
• Given the uncertainties around the war, the IMF will publish a range of scenarios in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report next week.
• Even in the most hopeful case, the IMF is cutting its growth forecasts, Georgieva confirmed.
• The IMF and World Bank Group's Spring Meetings will be held 13-18 April, in Washinton; IMF forecasts are due for release in the WEO on 14 April.
• She noted the conflict's "scarring effects" despite the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran.
• Georgieva said the IMF expected to have to provide up to $50bn in immediate financial assistance to countries affected by the war.
• She added that "even in a best case, there will be no neat and clean return to the status quo ante".
• The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said it was unlocking $5.9bn to aid economies hit by the Middle East war.

• US CPI data for March, due today, will be closely watched.
• Headline and core CPI is expected to have accelerated in March.
• CPI likely reached 3.4% y/y, after 2.4% y/y in February; gas prices surged during the month.
• Core CPI is expected at 2.7% y/y, from 2.5% y/y in February.
• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment and inflation expectations survey for April will likely provide further insight into the war's impact on US consumers.

• China's inflation data saw producer prices move out of deflation in March, with energy costs surging as a result of the Iran war.
• Headline PPI was up 0.5% y/y in March, ending a 41-month period of producer price deflation; PPI declined 0.9% y/y in February.
• Mineral product prices, oil and gas prices as well as nonferrous metal prices all rose in March, driving the PPI reflation.
• China has been experiencing a deflationary spiral as excess manufacturing and weak domestic demand have sparked fierce price competition, reducing company profits and slowing wage increases.
• CPI inflation decelerated in March; headline CPI rose 1.0% y/y in March, down from 1.3% y/y in February.
• The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, slipped to 1.1% y/y in March.
• Chinese consumers are also feeling the pinch of higher energy costs, with their transportation and communication costs up 0.9% y/y in March – the fastest gain since January 2023.
• The cost of energy needed to power vehicles rose 3.4% y/y in March, reversing a contraction of 9% y/y in February.
• State refineries have been granted access to China's commercial reserves of oil to support fuel production.
• Sluggish domestic demand is likely to continue to make it difficult to pass on producer price pressures to consumer prices.

• Japan's PPI also came in higher than expected in March.
• Headline PPI increased 0.8% y/y in March, up from an upwardly revised 0.1% y/y in February.
• Japan started tapping its oil stockpiles in March as the government attempted to temper the impact of the spike in oil prices due to the Iran war.
• Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced a further release of oil stocks, starting in early May.

• Locally, there are no major data releases scheduled for today.

• Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 60.6% year-to-date.
• The gold price is down this morning, and up by 10.4% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $96.78/bbl; ($95.92/bbl*).
• Gold is at $4768/oz ($4789/oz*).
• SA CDS 156bps*, Brazil 128bps* and Turkey 243bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.28%*, German bund at 2.99%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.68%*, SA's R2035 at 8.52%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

• 14h30: US CPI (March)
• 16h00: US University of Michigan sentiment, inflation expectations (April), factory orders (February), durable goods orders (February)

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