In the loop 05 November 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.33/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.39/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+1.5%), MXN (+1.3%) and HUF (+0.9%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-0.9%), RUB (-0.9%) and ARS (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the Swedish Riksbank yesterday raised interest rates by 25 bps, to 2.00%, as expected.
The central bank expects the combination of a stronger economy, higher costs from global supply disruptions and the weaker krona to push inflation above the 2% target next year.
The BOE is expected to hike its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps, to 4.00%, today.
Malaysia's central bank is likely to keep rates on hold at its monetary policy meeting today.

Election watch: US mid-term elections: the Democratic Party has secured control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the US midterm elections, overturning Republican majorities in both chambers.
Democrats made significant gains in traditionally Republican strongholds, including Texas, Kansas and South Carolina, delivering a major political setback to President Trump.

SA local government elections: South Africans headed to the polls yesterday, for the local government elections, with voting proceeding largely smoothly across the country.
The first verified results should start emerging during the day, with a clearer indication of party performance expected over the following days.
More comprehensive results are anticipated by the weekend.

Eurozone inflation accelerated to a three-year high in October, to 4.0% y/y, from 3.8% y/y in September.
On a m/m basis, CPI increased by 0.4% in October, down from a 0.6% increase in September.
The increase was driven primarily by rising energy costs, reinforcing concerns about persistent price pressures and the prospect of further monetary policy tightening by the ECB.
Energy inflation accelerated to 20.8% in October, from 18.9% in September, reflecting the continued impact of the US-Iran conflict on energy prices.
Services inflation also edged higher in October; core inflation remained unchanged at 2.5% y/y in October.

The US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings came in significantly higher than expected, at 7,523k in September, from an upwardly revised 7,190k in August.
ADP's monthly measure of private payrolls showed an 86k increase in October (well above expectations); it follows a downwardly revised 86k jobs increase in September.
The increase reflected gains in trade, transport, utilities, education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and financial services.
Investors are also awaiting the non-farm payrolls for October tomorrow; payrolls are expected to have increased by 65k in October, after having increased by 28k in September.
The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged in October, at 4.2%.

The US ISM services PMI eased to 54.5 in October, from 54.9 in September, falling short of market expectations of 54.8.
Despite the moderation, the index remained firmly in expansion for a 28th consecutive month, signalling continued resilience in the services sector.

Locally, President Cyril Ramaphosa yesterday said SA was seeking to negotiate a bilateral trade agreement with the US.
This follows Washington's announcement that it would terminate the country's preferential market access under AGOA from 1 January 2027.
Ramaphosa expressed hope that Pretoria and the Trump Administration could find common ground on geopolitical and trade issues, paving the way for improved bilateral relations.
He emphasised that SA would prioritise direct negotiations with Washington to establish mutually agreed trade rules and mechanisms that respect and reaffirm the sovereignty of both countries.

The S&P Global industry-wide PMI for October is due out today; the index came in below the 50 pt benchmark in September, at 49.0.
The electricity production and consumption data for September are also due out today.

Brent crude oil is currently at $94.14/bbl; ($94.62/bbl*).
Gold is at $4136/oz ($4060/oz*).
SA CDS 122bps*, Brazil 148bps* and Turkey 249bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.84%*, German bund at 3.27%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.63%**, SA's R2035 at 8.45%**.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

** Denotes Tuesday's close.

Key events and data:

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