In the loop
What you should know this morning:
- The rand is unchanged this morning, at R14.95/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R14.95/$*).
- EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the THB (+1.3%), COP (+1.1%) and PEN (+0.8%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the HUF (-0.5%), TWD (-0.4%) and CZK (-0.4%) were amongst the biggest losers.
- Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up, while the Shanghai Composite is down.
- Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 239.49 million, while the death toll has surpassed 4.88 million; recoveries are at 216.86 million.
- The US has 45.43 million cases, accounting for 18% of global cases; the US death toll is 737,589.
- India has 34 million cases and 451,220 deaths; Brazil has 21.59 million cases and 601,442 deaths.
- Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has commented about US inflation becoming more broad-based.
- Bostic remarked that price increases caused by supply-chain disruptions and the reopening of the services sector are likely to prove lasting.
- US CPI data for September later today is expected to remain elevated, at 5.3% y/y.
- Bostic is comfortable with the tapering process kicking off in November; St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has supported this view.
- Vice Chair Richard Clarida, however, reiterated that price pressures are likely not permanent and that stagflation isn't a concern.
- Janet Yellen too expects elevated inflation to be transitory but added that it would take time for the pace of price gains to return to normal.
- The FOMC meeting minutes for September are due out today.
- China’s trade surplus widened in September as export growth defied expectations of a slowdown amid a countrywide power crunch that forced factories to cut production.
- Exports have been a driver for this economy’s rebound from the pandemic, which has helped offset weak domestic spending.
- However, challenges such as high freight costs, raw material prices, electricity shortages and environmental constraints may still dampen exports.
- SA has the 17th highest caseload, at 2.912 million; 592 new cases were reported yesterday.
- Active cases are at 27,066; KwaZulu-Natal leads the way, with 13,052 active cases, followed by the Western Cape with 3,965.
- Covid-19 deaths rose by 83 yesterday, to 88,429; 2.797 million people (or 96%) have recovered from the virus.
- 18.016 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 27,929 tests were conducted yesterday.
- The positivity rate is 2.1%.
- 19.461 million vaccines have been administered to date; 205,681 vaccines were administered yesterday.
- Brent crude oil is down this morning, and up by 60.8% year-to-date.
- The gold price is up marginally this morning, and down by 7.2% year-to-date.
- Brent crude oil is currently at $83.32/bbl; ($83.42/bbl*).
- Gold is at $1762/oz ($1760/oz*).
- SA CDS 220bps*, higher than Brazil 209bps* and lower than Turkey 443bps*.
- Yields: US 10yr at 1.57%*, German bund at -0.086%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.96%*, SA’s R186 at 7.90%*.
* Denotes yesterday’s close.
Key events and data:
- 08h00: UK industrial production (August), manufacturing production (August), trade balance (August), GDP (August)
- 11h00: Eurozone industrial production (August)
- 13h00: SA retail sales (August)
- 13h00: US MBA mortgage applications (8 October)
- 14h30: US CPI (September)
- 20h00: US FOMC meeting minutes (22 September)