In the loop 11 February 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R15.88/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R15.94/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ARS (+1.2%), MYR (+0.3%) and THB (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-0.6%), HUF (-0.5%) and RUB (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

China's CPI softened more than expected in January, easing to 0.2% y/y, from 0.8% y/y in December, reflecting a high base effect and the Lunar New Year shifting to February.
PPI showed tentative improvement, with factory gate prices falling by a smaller margin, at -1.4% y/y in January, compared with -1.9% y/y in December.
This points to a mild recovery in PPI in 2026; however, deflation risks persist.
The National Bureau of Statistics announced an adjustment to the CPI basket effective from 2026, incorporating more goods and services linked to the new economy, a change that could technically lift headline CPI and PPI.

US business inventories increased by 0.1 % m/m in November, from 0.2% m/m increase in October, reflecting a slower accumulation of stocks.
Retail inventories declined slightly, driven in part by weaker motor vehicle stocks, while wholesale inventories rose and manufacturing inventories edged higher.
On a y/y basis, total business inventories were up 1.1% in November.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said interest rates could remain on hold for an extended period as policymakers assess incoming economic data.
She struck a cautiously optimistic tone, noting that economic growth should benefit from fiscal support, lower interest rates, and other supportive factors.
She also emphasised the need for policymakers to remain flexible if the economy does not evolve as expected.
Logan signalled openness to raising interest rates if circumstances warrant.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan commented that the Fed's existing interest rate stance, with the target range at 3.50-3.75%, could be appropriate to guide inflation toward the Fed's 2 % target.
This is likely provided that inflation continues to fall without a significant weakening in labour conditions.
Logan emphasised that further rate cuts might be warranted, only if inflation decreases and the labour market deteriorates materially.
Logan noted that past rate cuts have lowered labour market risks but could have increased inflation pressures.
Logan anticipates inflation progress this year due to moderating tariffs, slower housing inflation, and labour market adjustments.

The BLS will publish the delayed non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for January today; the release of the data was delayed due to the partial government shutdown.
NFP are expected to have increased by 65k, after having increased by 50k in December.
The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.4%.
The BLS is expected to revise and re-benchmark several seasonal factors from April to December.
Several downwards revisions to the data are thus likely which could place more pressure on the Fed to reduce rates when it next meets in March.

Brent crude oil is currently at $69.26/bbl; ($68.80/bbl*).
Gold is at $5052/oz ($5025/oz*).
SA CDS 137bps*, Brazil 128bps* and Turkey 213bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.14%*, German bund at 2.80%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.07%*, SA's R2035 at 7.96%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

11h00: Eurozone ECB wage tracker
14h00: US MBA mortgage applications (6 February)
15h30: US non-farm payrolls (January), unemployment rate (January), average hourly earnings (January)
21h00: US Federal budget balance (January)

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