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In the loop 13 December 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.80/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.75/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.7%), CZK (+0.2%) and HUF (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-0.6%), MXN (-0.4%) and PEN (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • The UK’s GfK consumer confidence improved, albeit only slightly, to -17 in December, from -18 in November.
  • Households are more optimistic about their personal finances over the coming year.
  • Consumers have also showed a greater willingness to tap into their savings to fuel spending.
  • The improvement came on the back of budget uncertainty over tax and spending plans subsided.  
 
  • The UK monthly GDP for October is on the cards today; growth is expected to come in at 0.1% m/m in October, after contracting by 0.1% m/m in September.
  • Consumers have thus far shown restraint despite healthy wage gains.
  • Household spending is likely to support economic activity more meaningfully in the coming months.
  • Government consumption is also expected to have supported growth.
  • UK manufacturing production for October is scheduled for release today.
  • Production is likely to have increased by 0.2% y/y in October, after falling by 1.0% y/y in September.
 
  • Eurozone industrial production for October is due today; production is like to have been dragged down by the weakness in Germany.
  • Production is likely to have declined by 1.9% y/y in October, after falling by 2.8% y/y in September.
 
  • Investors are keeping an eye on two key central bank meetings next week.
  • Both the Fed and the BOE will meet and deliberate on whether to cut rates for a final time this year.
  • The Fed is expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 bps, while the BOE will likely hold its benchmark rate steady.
  • Price pressures in the UK have continued to cool, albeit very slowly, supporting the case for the BOE to keep rates unchanged, after rate cuts earlier this year.
 
  • Locally, it’s a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 4.7% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 30.3% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $73.38/bbl; ($73.41/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2687/oz ($2686/oz*).
  • SA CDS 165bps*, Brazil 165bps* and Turkey 245bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.32%*, German bund at 2.20%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.12%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.16%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data:

  • 09h00: UK GDP (October), industrial production (October), manufacturing production (October), trade balance (October)
  • 12h00: Eurozone industrial production (October)
 

** Please note that this is the last publication of In the loop for 2024. Publication will resume on 6 January 2025.


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