In the loop 12 August 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.74/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.76/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.4%), ARS (+0.3%) and RUB (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the PLN (-0.6%), MXN (-0.6%) and CZK (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its benchmark interest rare by 25 bps today, to 3.6% (the lowest since April 2023).
The central bank noted that monetary policy easing would be appropriate, with underlying inflation continuing to decline.
The RBA noted further easing as hinging on incoming economic data.

The UK labour data, out today, is likely to show the jobs market and wage growth as remaining subdued.
The ILO unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged, at 4.7%%, in the three months to June.
Average earnings excluding bonuses likely increased 5.0% y/y in the three months to June, matching the increase increase in the three months to May.
A low response rate to the survey continues to distort the results of the Labour Force Survey.
The BOE is keeping a close eye on wage growth for signs of underlying price pressure.
The Eurozone ZEW survey expectations for August is due out today.

The US July CPI will be in focus and is likely to come in at 2.8% y/y, from 2.7% y/y in June.
On a m/m basis, headline CPI is likely to have increased by 0.2% in July, after having increased by 0.3% in June.
Core CPI is expected to come in slightly higher, at 3.0% y/y (0.3% m/m), from 2.9% y/y (0.2% m/m) in June.
The Fed will keep an eye on the data for any larger tariff-related price increases.
The US NFIB small businesses sentiment was likely little changed in July amid heightened trade uncertainty.
The index is expected to have increased only marginally in July, to 98.9, from 98.6 in June.
The Federal budget balance is also due out today.

The US and China have agreed to extend their tariff truce, pushing the deadline into early November.
It locks in, for now at least, a 30% tariff on Chinese imports, with Chinese duties on US imports at 10%.
This further extension gives both sides more time to work through longstanding trade concerns.

Locally, mining production for June is due out today; production is expected to have increased by 1.4% y/y in June, following a 0.2% y/y increase in May.
Mining production increased by 3.7% m/m in May.
Stats SA will also release the Quarterly Labour Force Survey for Q2:25; the unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 32.9%, in Q2:25.

Brent crude oil is currently at $66.92/bbl; ($66.63/bbl*).
Gold is at $3352/oz ($3342/oz*).
SA CDS 180bps*, Brazil 139bps* and Turkey 276bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.28%*, German bund at 2.69%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.74%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.65%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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