In the loop 26 January 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.08/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.12/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the MYR (+0.8%), MXN (+0.8%) and RON (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.1%), ARS (-0.4%) and INR (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the US Fed is widely expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged on Wednesday.
Attention will centre on how long this pause might last and whether policymakers are aligned behind Chair Jerome Powell.
The Bank of Canada is also expected to leave its overnight rate target unchanged, at 2.25%, on Wednesday.
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will meet on Thursday; we see the balance of risks tilted towards another 25 bps rate cut, taking the repo rate to 6.5%.
The Swedish Riksbank is anticipated to keep its benchmark rate steady, at 1.75%, on Thursday.
Pakistan’s central bank is expected to cut its policy rate further today, following an unexpected rate cut in December.
Sri Lanka is likely to hold rates steady on Wednesday after a prolonged easing cycle.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore is expected to keep its policy settings unchanged on Thursday.

China’s industrial profits for December, scheduled for release tomorrow, are likely to stay under pressure.
Japan’s industrial production for December is also due this week.

The German IFO survey for January, due out today, is expected to offer an early read on how the German economy kicked off 2026.
Eurozone GDP for Q4:25 is scheduled for release on Friday; data is expected to show that growth slowed in the final quarter.
Several Eurozone countries’ GDP data are also due out on Thursday.

The US Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for January, out tomorrow, is expected to have increased to 90.0, from 89.1 in December.
The S&P Cotality house price index for November is due for release on Wednesday and is expected to show that growth continued to decelerate on a y/y basis.
The trade balance for November, due out on Thursday, is likely to see the deficit widening.

Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for November is scheduled for release tomorrow; the index increased to 116.7 in October.
The December PPI is on the cards on Thursday and is expected to come in at 3.0% y/y, after having increased by 2.9% y/y in November.
The M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for December are scheduled for release on Friday.
PSCE is expected to have increased by 7.7% y/y in December, after having increased by 7.8% y/y in November.
The monthly Budget balance data for December is also due for release on Friday; the budget deficit came in at R15.0bn in November.
The December trade balance is scheduled for release on Friday; a trade surplus of R27.3bn in December is expected, from a surplus of R37.7bn in November.

Brent crude oil is currently at $65.90/bbl; ($65.88/bbl*).
Gold is at $5061/oz ($4987/oz*).
SA CDS 135bps*, Brazil 131bps* and Turkey 215bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.22%*, German bund at 2.90%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.27%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.13%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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