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Standard Bank Group
In the loop 24 March 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.21/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R18.22/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the CLP (+0.8%), COP (+0.7%) and TRY (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-0.8%), MXN (-0.6%) and THB (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai composite are down.
 
  • Central bank watch: the Central Bank of Sri Lanka is likely to hold rates steady, at 8.0%, on Wednesday.
 
  • China’s industrial profit growth for January and February, scheduled for release on Thursday, likely remained strong, supported by high-tech and manufacturing firms.
 
  • US new homes sales for February are due out tomorrow; a 3.5% m/m increase is expected in February, following a 10.5% m/m decline in January.
  • The US Conference Board consumer confidence index for March, also due out tomorrow, likely slipped to 93.6, from 98.3 in February.
  • The US Q4:24 GDP (final estimate), out on Thursday, is expected to come in at 2.3% q/q in Q4:24, unchanged from the previous estimate, and from 3.1% q/q in Q3:24.
  • Personal income and spending for February are scheduled for release on Friday.
  • The core PCE deflator is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in February, matching January’s increase.
 
  • Eurozone and UK flash PMI data for March are due out today and will provide an indication of how economic growth has been developing in Q1:25.
  • The German Ifo survey for March will provide more information tomorrow how the German economy fared in Q1:25.
  • UK CPI for February is scheduled for release on Wednesday and looks set to have moderated further. 
  • Looking ahead, however, CPI is likely to increase further in the near term on the back of higher energy costs and increases in administered prices.
  • UK retail sales for February, due on Friday, are likely to have declined by 0.4% m/m, after having increased by 1.7% m/m in January.
 
  • Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for January is scheduled for release tomorrow; the index slipped to 112.8.0 in December. 
  • The BER’s consumer confidence index for Q1:25 is on the cards tomorrow; consumer confidence deteriorated to -6 in Q4:24.
  • The Q4:24 non-farm payrolls are also due out tomorrow; payrolls decreased by 1.2% q/q in Q3:24.
  • The February PPI is on the cards on Thursday and is expected at 1.3% y/y, from 1.1% y/y in January.
  • The monthly Budget balance data for February is due on Friday; the budget deficit was R62.7bn in January.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 3.6% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 15.1% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $71.91/bbl; ($72.16/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3021/oz ($3022/oz*).
  • SA CDS 222bps*, Brazil 191bps* and Turkey 327bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.24%*, German bund at 2.76%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.58%**, SA’s R2035 at 10.57%**.
 

* Denotes Friday’s close.

** Denotes Thursday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 11h00: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing, services and composite PMI (March)
  • 11h30: UK S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (March)
  • 15h45: UK S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (March)
 

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