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In the loop 28 July 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.74/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R17.76/$*).
  • EM currencies were largely down on Friday; the COP (-1.6%), CLP (-1.4%) and PHP (-0.8%) were the biggest losers; the PLN was up by 0.1%.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are down, while the Hang Seng is up.
 
  • Central bank watch: the US FOMC meeting is in the spotlight on Wednesday.
  • The FOMC is largely expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged despite pressure from President Trump to cut rates.
  • The Bank of Canada is expected to hold the overnight rate steady, at 2.75%, on Wednesday.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan is likely to cut rates by 50 basis points, to 10.50%, on Wednesday.
  • The BOJ is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% on Thursday.
  • The SARB will meet on Thursday; market expectations are for a 25bps cut in the repo rate, to 7.0%.
 
  • Japan’s industrial output is expected to have declined further in June, weighed down by supply constraints due to China’s rare earth export curbs.
  • Production is likely to have fallen by 1.2% m/m in June, following a 0.1% m/m decline in May.
  • China’s official PMIs are scheduled for release on Thursday.
  • The official manufacturing PMI, out on Friday, is expected to have remained unchanged at 49.7 in July.
  • The S&P Global manufacturing PMI is likely to have fallen to 50.2 in July, from 50.4 in June.
 
  • The EU has reached a trade deal with the US, ahead of the 1 August deadline, that will see the region face 15% tariffs on most of its exports.
  • The EU has agreed to buy US energy products, invest in the US, and open up markets to trade with the US at zero tariffs.
  • The Eurozone GDP data, due out on Wednesday, are likely to show that the economy failed to grow in the second quarter.
  • GDP is likely to have flatlined in Q2:25, after having increased by 0.6% q/q in Q1:25.
  • Eurozone inflation for July, scheduled for release on Friday, is likely to have moderated to 1.9% y/y in July, from 2.0% y/y in June.
 
  • The US JOLTS job openings for June are on the cards tomorrow and are likely have declined to 7.55m, from 7.769m in May.
  • Consumer confidence likely improved in July after respondents in the latest University of Michigan survey saw less chance of losing their jobs; the index is expected to have increased to 96.0, from 93.0 in June.
  • The second quarter GDP (advance print) on Wednesday likely rebounded following a contraction in the first quarter. 
  • GDP is expected to come in at 2.4% q/q in Q2:25, following a contraction of 0.5% q/q in Q1:25.
  • The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, scheduled for release on Thursday, is likely to show more rapid inflation than June’s CPI report.
  • The non-farm payrolls (NFP) for July, in the spotlight on Friday, are expected to have increased, by 109k, down from an increase of 147k in June.
  • The unemployment rate is likely to have to have increased 4.2% in July, from 4.1% in June.
  • The headline ISM manufacturing PMI, also due out on Friday, is expected to improve slightly in July, to 49.5, from 49.0 in June.
 
  • Locally, the M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for June are scheduled for release tomorrow.
  • PSCE is likely to come in at 4.39% y/y in June, from 4.98% y/y in May. 
  • The monthly Budget balance data for June is also on the cards; the budget deficit came in at R10.1bn in May. 
  • The June PPI is due out on Thursday and is expected to come in at 0.7% y/y, after having increased by 0.1% y/y in May.
  • The June trade balance is scheduled for release on Thursday; a trade surplus of R26.5bn is expected, from R21.7bn in May. 
  • The BER manufacturing PMI for July is due for release on Friday; the index increased to 48.5 in June, from 43.1 in May.
  • The July Naamsa vehicle sales are also due on Friday; vehicle sales increased by 18.7% y/y in June.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 7.6% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 27.2% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $68.95/bbl; ($68.44/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3339/oz ($3337/oz*).
  • SA CDS 185bps*, Brazil 147bps* and Turkey 281bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.38%*, German bund at 2.71%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.91%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.83%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • No economic data releases.
 

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