The SA Daily
30 July 2020
Rand stronger in recent weeks
Shireen Darmalingam
- As concerns of a second wave of COVID-19 infections are rising across the globe, South Africa is heading close to half a million cases and has yet to reach its peak. SA now has 471,123 cases, making up more than half the reported cases on the African continent. It has the fifth-highest caseload in the world.
- Fatalities are at 7,497. There is, however, a “huge discrepancy” between confirmed COVID-19 deaths and an unusually high number of excess deaths from natural causes according to the South African Medical Research Council. The council noted more than 17,000 excess deaths from May 6 to July 14 as compared to data from the past two years. It was further highlighted that there were 59% more deaths from natural causes than would have been expected. The council noted that these excess deaths could be attributed to COVID-19 as well as other widespread diseases such as HIV and TB.
- While SA has been praised for its early interventions at the onset of the pandemic, President Cyril Ramaphosa noted this week that the “lockdown has revealed a very sad fault line in our society that reveals how grinding poverty, inequality and unemployment is tearing the fabric of our communities apart”. The lockdown has, however, slowed down the rate of infection. The president further noted that it has allowed the healthcare system to prepare for a probable surge in infections in the coming weeks.
- While the rand weakened to above R19/$ on the back of the blow to the economy during the stringent Level 5 lockdown phase, it has since strengthened by 13.5%. It is currently trading close to our year-end target of R16.50/$. We caution, however, that the currency will be subjected to further bouts of weakness in H2:20 as SA attempts to flatten the curve.
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