In the loop 06 October 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.26/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R17.23/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the HUF (+0.7%), ZAR (+0.4%) and COP (+0.4) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-0.4%), TRY (-0.1%) and INR (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

Central bank watch: the Fed’s FOMC minutes from the September meeting will be released on Wednesday.
Investors will keep an eye on the minutes for signs of the pace of further interest rate cuts.
The minutes of the ECB’s September monetary policy meeting, due out on Thursday, will be closely watched for any signs of support for a further rate cut.
The ECB is widely expected to keep policy rates unchanged at its next meeting on 29-30 October.
Central bank interest rate decisions in New Zealand, Thailand and the Philippines will be in the spotlight this week, with two cuts and a hold expected.

China's credit growth data for September, due at the end of the week, is expected to have slowed as local government bond sales fell and demand for loans was subdued.

The Eurozone Sentix investor sentiment index is due out today and is likely to have improved to -7.7 in October, from -9.2 in September.
Retail sales for August are also on the cards today; sales are likely to have improved by 0.1% m/m in August, from a 0.5% m/m decline in July.
German industrial production figures for August are scheduled for release on Wednesday and are expected to show another decline, with the near-term outlook remaining weak amid ongoing concerns over US trade policy.
In the UK, the RICS house price balance for September is due for release on Thursday.

The US government shutdown that began on 1 October shows no signs of ending soon, raising concerns about delays in key economic data releases.
This disruption could hinder the FOMC’s ability to assess the state of the economy accurately as alternative data sources are poor substitutes for official statistics.
If the shutdown continues for more than three weeks, the September CPI report (scheduled for 15 October) will likely not be released.
The collection of October employment data would also be affected.
The August trade balance report, pending the government’s reopening, is expected to show a narrower deficit, reflecting the earlier decline in the advance goods trade gap.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is due for release on Friday.
Sentiment likely weakened in early October amid rising concerns about the labour market.

Locally, the SARB’s gross and net reserves for September are scheduled for release tomorrow.
In August, gross reserves stood at $70.42bn, while net reserves were at $65.90bn in July.
Manufacturing production data for August will be published on Thursday; in July, production fell by 0.7% y/y and declined by 0.5% m/m.

Brent crude oil is currently at $65.28/bbl; ($64.53/bbl*).
Gold is at $3934/oz ($3886/oz*).
SA CDS 163bps*, Brazil 136bps* and Turkey 257bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.11%*, German bund at 2.69%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.28%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.16%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF