FY25 guidance upgrade due to scale benefits
Tracy Kivunyu
#themes: guidance upgrade, 1P growth, cost drop in 2H25
Jumia 2Q25: Jumia 2Q25 loss before tax was in line with estimates, but performance mix differed due to stronger 1P revenue, slower deceleration in costs and a stronger finance costs position than our expectations. FY25 guidance has been upgraded from GMV of USD 795-830m to USD 830-865m (SBGS: 798m). Physical order growth has also been upgraded to 25-30% y/y (previously: 20-25% y/y). Loss before tax has also been upgraded from USD 50-55m to USD 45-50m, while FY26 and FY27 guidance has been retained. Jumia has already seen an acceleration in physical orders (32% y/y) and GMV (21% y/y) and is expecting substantial reductions in costs driven by the impact of renegotiated AWS contracts effective May 2025 lowering tech expenses, reduction of staff headcount by 5% y/y and scale benefits improving general and administrative effects and automation of some customer interactions to reduce the need for more customer agents reducing fulfilment expense. Jumia has also reintroduced online marketing to accelerate customer acquisition efforts. We will update our numbers to reflect the upgraded guidance.
Customer and physical orders growth in line, total orders lag due to JumiaPay products scale down: Quarterly active customers adjusted for the Tunisia and South Africa exit (perimeter effects) in FY24 grew 12% y/y to 2.2m in 2Q25 in line with SBGS estimates. Total orders grew 4% y/y (7% y/y adjusted for perimeter effects) to 5m, behind SBGS estimates of 5.9m in 2Q25 due to the scaling down of digital products sold via JumiaPay, which have high order volume but low revenue. However, physical goods orders adjusted for perimeter effects grew 18% y/y in 2Q25 to 5m in line with estimates. Physical order growth was driven by Nigeria (25% y/y), Kenya (38% y/y) and other markets (19% y/y) offsetting a 9% y/y growth in Ivory Coast (decelerating from 25% y/y in 1Q25 due to a temporary slowdown in low value order categories driven by commission and fee increases) and a 6% y/y decline in Egypt (improving from a 15% y/y decline in 1Q25 due to lower impact from corporate sales).
Liquidity update: Jumia’s liquidity position was USD 98m, showing a USD 12m reduction in 2Q25 (1Q25: USD 23m). Working capital position improved to USD 4m compared to a negative working capital position of USD 7m in 1Q25. Jumia believes that it has sufficient cashflows to achieve future profitability without additional capital raises. Working capital is expected to see volatility in early 4Q25 in preparation for the Jumia Black Friday and Christmas sale; but be better than in 4Q24.
GMV continues showing the impact of lower corporate sales: Total GMV grew 6% y/y to USD 180m (9% y/y adjusted for perimeter effects) in 2Q25, 1% behind our estimates, but physical goods GMV which grew 10% y/y adjusted for perimeter effects was in line with SBGS estimates. GMV continued showing the impacts of lower corporate sales in Egypt, but there was limited currency impact on y/y performance. GMV performance in 2Q25 was driven by 11% y/y GMV growth in Ivory Coast, 36% y/y in Nigeria, 31% y/y in Kenya and 27% y/y in other markets, offsetting a 50% y/y decline in Egypt GMV (impacted by lower corporate sales). Average order value declined 7% y/y to USD 36 due to Egypt but showed a 2.5% q/q increase (2Q25 vs 1Q25).
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