In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.07/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.08/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.8%), CLP (+0.5%) and ZAR (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-0.6%), BRL (-0.4%) and PHP (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

• The UK housing market remains subdued, with current conditions pointing towards falling prices.
• The latest release of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) UK Residential Market Survey for October shows the house price balance continuing to indicate lower prices. 
• The headline net balance for house prices came in at -19%, down from -17% in September, indicating that more surveyors are seeing price declines than increases.  
• Buyer demand was weak; new buyer enquiries were at a net balance of -24%, the weakest since April, while agreed sales were also at -24%. 
• However, sentiment for the year ahead shows a possibility of recovery, albeit underpinned by caution given widespread uncertainty, especially ahead of the autumn Budget.

• The UK GDP data for Q3:25, scheduled for release today, may confirm that the economy has returned to a more subdued pace of growth. 
• GDP is expected to have expanded by 0.2% q/q in Q3:25, following a 0.3% q/q increase in Q2:25.
• The ECB will publish its Economic Bulletin today.

• President Trump yesterday signed legislation to end the US government shutdown after lawmakers approved a temporary funding bill, ending a record 43-day impasse.
• Federal employees are set to return to work today.
• However, it may take several days, or even weeks, for government operations to fully resume and clear the backlog that has built up since the shutdown began on 1 October.
• Earlier on Wednesday, the House passed the stopgap measure by a vote of 222 to 209, extending federal funding through January 30.

• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic cautioned that inflation remains the biggest threat to the US economy.
• He expressed his preference for keeping interest rates unchanged until there is clear evidence that inflation is firmly on track towards the Fed’s 2% target. 
• Bostic warned that easing policy too soon could reignite price pressures.
• He noted that “the clearer and more urgent risk is still price stability,” even as the labour market shows signs of softening.
• Bostic added that “moving policy near or into accommodative territory risks pumping fresh blood into the inflation beast and threatening to untether the inflation expectations of businesses and consumers”.
• Bostic acknowledged the difficult backdrop facing policymakers, with inflation still above target, while the labour market cools. 
• He also announced that he plans to retire from the Fed when his current term ends in February 2026.

• Locally, mining production for September is due out today; production is expected to have flatlined, following a 0.2% y/y decrease in August.
• Mining production declined by 1.2% m/m in August.

• Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 16.0% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and up by 60.6% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $62.67/bbl; ($62.71/bbl*).
• Gold is at $4214/oz ($4195/oz*).
• SA CDS 145bps*, Brazil 139bps* and Turkey 244bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.06%*, German bund at 2.64%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.77%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.66%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

• 09h00: UK GDP (Q3:25), monthly GDP (September), industrial production (September), manufacturing production (September), visible trade (September)
• 11h00: Eurozone ECB publishes Economic Bulletin
• 12h00: Eurozone industrial production (September)
• 13h00: SA mining production (September)

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