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South Africa FX 07 June 2021

FX Monthly Chart Book

Shireen Darmalingam

  • The rand has strengthened significantly in recent weeks, and remains strong relative to emerging market peers. It has traded in a range of R13.74/$ to R14.38/$ in May.
  • The terms of trade provided strong support to the rand in 2020 and H1:21; we view the rand as fairly valued given the current domestic and global fundamentals.
  • We foresee modest depreciation from H2:21, underpinned by the partial reversal of the recent commodity price strength.
  • We see the rand ending the year at R14,30/$, and averaging R14,25/$.

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