In the loop 06 July 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.24/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.23/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the COP (+0.9%), RUB (+0.7%) and CLP (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the TRY (-0.3%) and TWD (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are down, while the Hang Seng is up.

Iran war: attention remains on the implementation of the June MoU.
There are continued efforts to advance negotiations on key outstanding issues, including the future operation of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear programme.
While recent Doha talks produced only limited progress, both sides maintained communication channels established earlier to monitor and manage violations of the agreement.

Central bank watch: the minutes of the US FOMC meeting held in June are scheduled for release on Wednesday.
The minutes of Kevin Warsh's first meeting should show stronger support for interest rate hikes.
The ECB's minutes of the 10-11 June monetary policy meeting, due on Thursday, could provide insights on the Governing Council's appetite for a follow-up rate hike.
ECB President Christine Lagarde struck a hawkish note on several fronts in the press conference that followed.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will likely keep rates unchanged on Wednesday as lower oil prices ease near-term inflation risks.

China's inflation and credit data for June are due for release this week.
Consumer inflation should remain subdued in June; it is expected to come in softer as food and non-food goods prices stayed subdued.
Lower global oil prices likely drove a slowdown in China's PPI in June.

The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index for July, due today, is expected to have improved to -10.0, from -13.4 in June.
Retail sales data for the region for May are also on the cards today; sales are likely to have increased by 1.6% y/y in May, after having increased by 1.0% y/y in April.
On a m/m basis, sales are expected to have increased by 0.3% in May, following a 0.4% decline in April.
German industrial production (including energy and construction), to be released tomorrow, is likely to have remained broadly flat in May, following a 0.4% m/m increase in April.

The US ISM services PMI for June is due out today and is likely to have slipped to 54.0, from 54.5 in May.
The trade balance, due out tomorrow, is likely to have widened significantly in May, to -$78.5bn, from -$55.9bn in April.
Exports likely declined across most product categories, while imports are expected to have increased.
Existing home sales for June, due out on Thursday, are expected to have increased by 0.9% m/m, following a 3.2% increase in May.

Locally, the SARB's gross and net reserves for June are scheduled for release tomorrow.
Net reserves are expected to have slipped to $71.1bn in June, from $73.47bn in May.
Gross reserves came in at $76.58bn in May.
Manufacturing production for May is due out on Thursday; production is likely to have declined by 3.0% y/y in May, after having fallen by 2.9% y/y in April.

Brent crude oil is currently at $71.97/bbl; ($72.12/bbl*).
Gold is at $4153/oz ($4176/oz*).
SA CDS 125bps*, Brazil 126bps* and Turkey 220bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.48%**, German bund at 2.93%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.36%*, SA's R2035 at 8.19%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

** Denotes Thursday's close.

Key events and data:

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