In the loop 04 October 2024

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is trading at R17.44/$ this morning, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.49/$*).
EM currencies were largely down yesterday; the MYR (-1.1%), IDR (-1.0%) and THB (-1.0%) lost the most; the TRY (+0.1%) gained.
Asian equity markets: the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up.

Central bank watch: the National Bank of Romania will announce its decision on rates today.
The bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, at 6.50%.
Various policymakers from the ECB are due to speak today; the ECB’s next interest rate decision will be on 17 October.

The Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted in a radio interview that US policymakers’ focus has expanded to the jobs market, after being more narrowly focused on inflation.
“Inflation is coming down and is close to target, unemployment has come up and the job market is basically where we would want it to be,” Goolsbee said.
He remarked that he would like to see the unemployment rate, currently at 4.2%, remaining steady.
“Rates need to come down over the next 12 months by a lot,” Goolsbee argued.

US non-farm payrolls (NFP) for September will be in the spotlight today as the latest gauge of US job market health.
Payroll additions are expected to have increased, by 150k, following an increase of 142k in August.
The unemployment rate is expected to have remained at 4.2% in September.
US initial jobless claims ticked up further at the end of September but is still relatively low.
Initial jobless claims rose to 225k for the week ending 28 September, from 219k in the prior week.
Claims could rise at a faster pace over the next few weeks due to disruptions such as Hurricane Helene and the port strike.
Continuing claims for the week ended 21 September came in at 1826k, from a downwardly revised 1827k in the previous week.

US factory orders declined 0.2% m/m in August, after rising by a downwardly revised 4.9% m/m in July.
Durable goods orders remained flat in August, as data released on Thursday confirmed.

A spate of final PMI figures for September was released yesterday.
Japan’s Jibun Bank composite PMI was revised lower for September, to 52.0, from a reading of 52.5 previously and 52.9 in August.
The Jibun Bank services PMI came in at 53.1 in September (previous reading 53.9), down from 53.7 in August.
The UK S&P Global services PMI declined to 52.4 (52.8 previously) in September, after reaching 53.7 in August; the composite PMI was lower, at 52.6 in September, from 53.8 in August.
The Eurozone’s HCOB services PMI was revised higher for September, to 51.4, from a reading of 50.5 previously; the services PMI stood at 52.9 in August.
The HCOB Eurozone composite PMI dipped to 49.6 in September (previous reading 48.9), signalling contraction, down from 51.0 in August.

Eurozone PPI inflation for August was published yesterday; PPI rose 0.6% m/m, after rising 0.7% m/m in July.
In y/y terms, Eurozone PPI declined 2.3% in August, after falling 2.2% y/y in July.

Brent crude oil is currently at $77.58/bbl; ($77.62/bbl*).
Gold is at $2667/oz ($2660/oz*).
SA CDS 183bps*, Brazil 147bps* and Turkey 279bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 3.85%*, German bund at 2.14%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.32%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.40%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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