In the loop 11 August 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.70/$, after closing unchanged on Friday (R17.74/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the PEN (+0.5%), MXN (+0.5%) and HUF (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.9%), MYR (-0.3%) and BRL (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to cut its benchmark interest rate tomorrow.
The Bank of Thailand's rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday, will likely be a close call, with a rate cut likely due to downside risks to the growth outlook.

The UK GDP for Q2:25, due on Thursday, is expected to come in at 0.1% q/q, from 0.7% q/q in Q1:25.
Economic data for April and May, already published, showed a decline in output in both months.
The UK labour data, out tomorrow, is likely to show the jobs market and wage growth continuing to cool.

The US NFIB small businesses sentiment was likely little changed in July amid heightened trade uncertainty.
The US July CPI will be in focus tomorrow and is likely to come in at 2.8% y/y, from 2.7% y/y in June.
On a m/m basis, headline CPI is likely to have increased by 0.2% in July, after having increased by 0.3% in June.
The Fed will keep an eye on the data for any larger tariff-related price increases.
PPI for June on Wednesday is expected at 2.5% y/y, from 2.3% y/y in June.
Retail sales for July, due out on Friday, likely increased by 0.3% m/m, after having increased by 0.5% m/m in June.
The US Empire manufacturing survey for August is due out on Friday; the index is expected to come in at 0.0 in August, from 5.5 in July, signalling a modest pullback after July’s strong reading.
July industrial production figures, also scheduled for release on Friday, may show modest gains in factory output.
Business inventories likely increased by 0.2% m/m in June, after stagnating in May.
The University of Michigan sentiment index for August is also due out on Friday.
The sentiment index is likely to have improved to 62.0 in August, from 61.7 in July.

Locally, manufacturing production for June is due out today; production is expected to have declined by 0.8% y/y in June, after having increased by 0.5% y/y in May.
On a m/m basis, manufacturing production is likely to have increased by 0.4% in June, following a 2.0% increase in May.
Mining production for June is due out tomorrow; production is expected to have increased by 1.4% y/y in June, following a 0.2% y/y increase in May.
Mining production increased by 3.7% m/m in May.
Stats SA will release the Quarterly Labour Force Survey for Q2:25 tomorrow; the unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 32.9%, in Q2:25.
The June retail sales data will be out on Wednesday; retail sales is likely to have increased by 3.3% y/y in June, following a 4.2% y/y increase in May.

Brent crude oil is currently at $66.22/bbl; ($66.59/bbl*).
Gold is at $3375/oz ($3397/oz*).
SA CDS 184bps*, Brazil 142bps* and Turkey 277bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.28%*, German bund at 2.69%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.70%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.62%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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