South Africa
04 September 2024
Electricity Tracker
Shireen Darmalingam
- Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) was at 52.6% in Q1:24 and improved to an average of 61.29% in Q2:24. The third quarter saw a more significant increase in the EAF, to more than 70% earlier in the quarter (and for the first time since mid-2020), which should support an ongoing recovery in economic activity. The EAF in 2024 thus far is at an average of 67.20% This is above the average of 54.7% in 2023. The improvement in the EAF is largely on the back of a decline in unplanned outages. Eskom remains focused on achieving financial and operational sustainability through continued improvements in the EAF, aiming for 70% by March 2025.
- The unplanned outage factor (ratio of energy losses over a given time to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time) was at 30.57% in Q1:24 and dropped to 27.14% in Q2:24, and is 23.20% in Q3:24 thus far. It is currently at 22.5%, a level last seen in 2021. The planned outage factor (planned maintenance) is just above 9% in the quarter to date, down from an average of 11% in Q2:24.
- Eskom released its summer plan earlier this month. Group CEO Dan Marokane anticipates that SA will experience a “loadshedding free summer” this year. This view is based on Eskom keeping unplanned losses below 13,000MW. In a worse-case scenario, Eskom noted that should unplanned outages reach up to 15,000MW, we could see loadshedding up to Stage 2 at the most. Marokane added that unplanned losses averaged around 12,000MW over the past four months. In addition, Eskom’s focus going ahead is to control unplanned losses to ensure a comfortable summer without loadshedding. Marokane is also confident that more generation capacity is expected to come online from power stations in the coming months, further easing pressure on the grid. It was noted that 2,500MW of added capacity will add significant margins to Eskom’s reserves. Marokane also noted that the generation performance has been supported by the interventions executed from the generation recovery plan.
- The decrease in the level of loadshedding by several stages earlier this year, and the suspension of loadshedding since 26 March, came on the back of a combination of factors, including an increase in private-sector electricity self-generation capacity. Lower levels of unplanned outages have contributed significantly to the improvement of the grid and the suspension of loadshedding four-and-a-half months ago.
- SA has experienced a total of 1,656 hours loadshedding thus far in 2024. This translates into 69 full days of loadshedding this year. There were 289 full days of loadshedding in 2023. SA has experienced cumulative loadshedding of 2,801 GWh in the year to date. It was a cumulative 12,995 GWh in the comparable period in 2023. Several Eskom units have returned to commercial operation and will continue to help alleviate loadshedding pressure this year. Eskom has noted that the ongoing improvements to its generation performance since the end of Q1:24 have allowed it to reduce loadshedding significantly. As such, loadshedding has been suspended now for 162 consecutive days. We expect economic growth at 1.1% in 2024, with growth picking up more materially in H2:24 and supported by the return to commercial operation of the abovementioned generating units and increased self-generation. However, risks to the growth outlook remain to the downside, should flare-ups of loadshedding recur while Eskom’s fleet remains unreliable.
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