In the loop 10 January 2022

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is unchanged this morning, at R15.58/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R15.58/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the CLP (+1.0%), ZAR (+1.0%) and HUF (+1.0%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the THB (-0.5%), COP (-0.5%) and PHP (-0.4%) were amongst the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 307.89 million, while the death toll has breached 5.5 million; recoveries are at 259.58 million.
US cases, hospitalizations and fatalities accelerated last week.
The US has 61.26 million cases, accounting for 19% of global cases; the US death toll is 859,356.
India has 35.70 million cases and 483,936 deaths; Brazil has 22.52 million cases and 620,031 deaths.
Australia has reported 100,000 new Covid cases in a single day for the first time.
London’s public health chief has said that the Omicron variant “may have passed its peak” there.
Hungary expects more than 13,000 daily infections and about 200 daily deaths during its the current wave.
Greece has set 1 February as the deadline for booster jabs; those who have not received their booster jabs will be barred from most indoor venues.
Globally, more than 9.45 billion doses have been administered across 184 countries at a rate of 37.4 million doses a day.

US CPI for December is expected to have increased to 7% y/y, the biggest advance in almost 40 years, from 6.8% y/y in November.
This could see more Fed officials signal appetite for rates lift-off as soon as the March FOMC meeting.
Consumer prices are seen rising 0.4% m/m for December, from 0.8% m/m in November.
US retail sales, industrial output and the University of Michigan sentiment index are due out on Friday.
In the Eurozone, industrial production may show that output is slowing, reflecting the impact of global supply chain disruptions.
UK monthly GDP data for November is due on Friday.

Africa’s Covid-19 cases are at 10.2 million; fatalities are at 231,999.
Morocco has 1.0 million reported cases, Nigeria 248,312, Ghana 150,874, Kenya 311,538.
SA, Morocco, Tunisia, Ethiopia and Libya are among the countries with the highest number of cases on the continent.
Less than 10% of Africa's population has been fully vaccinated.
Many countries initially struggled to access sufficient shots, and later faced vaccine hesitancy.

SA has the 18th highest caseload, at 3.526 million; 4,482 new cases were reported yesterday.
Active cases are at 146,649; KwaZulu-Natal leads the way, with 60,339 active cases, followed by the Western Cape with 25,439.
Covid-19 deaths rose by 82 yesterday, to 92,453; 3.286 million people (or 93.2%) have recovered from the virus.
21.553 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; the positivity rate is at 17.6%.
SA’s drop in new infections in recent days may signal that the country's Omicron-driven surge has passed its peak, according to medical experts.
ICU admissions are significantly lower than those registered during the Delta wave.
President Ramaphosa has called for SA to step up vaccinations.
Nearly 40% of the adult SA population has been fully vaccinated, higher than in many African countries but still short of the SA government’s target.
28.329 million vaccines have been administered in SA to date; 4,056 vaccines were administered yesterday.

Naamsa will release December vehicle sales data today; sales are expected to have increased by 4.5% y/y, from 6.6% y/y in November.
The November manufacturing data is expected to have contracted, by 2.1% y/y, following a decline of 8.9% y/y in October.
Electricity production and consumption for November is also due out this week.

Brent crude oil is currently at $81.94/bbl; ($81.75/bbl*).
Gold is at $1793/oz ($1796/oz*).
SA CDS 194bps*, Brazil 214bps* and Turkey 573bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 1.76%*, German bund at -0.043%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.81%*, SA’s R186 at 7.87%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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