In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.70/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.69/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the KRW (+0.4%), BGN (+0.2%) and PHP (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the IDR (-0.5%), MYR (-0.5%) and ARS (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up, while the Shanghai Composite is down.

• Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in September, the lowest since January this year, from 2.5% in August.
• Japan's unemployment rate peaked at 3.1% in late 2021 under the strains of the Covid pandemic and business and travel restrictions.
• The job-to-applicant ratio edged up to 1.24 in September, from 1.23 in August.
• The BOJ will assess Japan’s labour market conditions when meeting on Friday.
• The central bank is largely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold.
• Governor Kazuo Ueda signalled that the bank still has time to consider its next policy steps.

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos has noted that the central bank has made significant progress in bringing down inflation.
• However, it still can’t declare victory just yet.
• He added that the “outlook, however, is surrounded by substantial risks”.
• He cited geopolitical conflicts that are threatening to push up energy and freight costs, extreme weather, and sticky wage growth as having the potential to keep price pressures high for longer.
• Guindos further said that the Eurozone economy has been weaker than expected, with risks elevated and tilted to the downside.

• The US Conference Board consumer confidence index for October is due out today; the index is likely to have increased to 99.5, from 98.7 in September.
• The slight rebound in October may be likely on the back of most consumers still holding down jobs and still willing to spend on travel and entertainment.
• The US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings for September are likely to have fallen further.
• Labour demand was relatively robust in August, which supported an increase in hiring and a decline in the unemployment rate.
• The September JOLTS print may have slowed down to 7.935 million, from 8.040 million in August.
• Openings in September are likely to have been concentrated in healthcare, government, and professional and business activities.
• The data comes ahead of the non-farm payrolls (NFP) for October, which will be in the spotlight on Friday.
• NFP are likely to have increased by 110k in October, following an increase of 254k in September.
• The US FHFA house price index for August is also on the cards today; the index likely increased by 0.1% m/m in August, the same as in July.
• The S&P CoreLogic house price index for August will likely show a slight moderation.

• Locally, the M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for September are due out today. 
• PSCE is likely to come in at 4.02% y/y in September, from 4.95% y/y in August.

• Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 7.2% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and up by 33.5% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $71.50/bbl; ($71.42/bbl*).
• Gold is at $2753/oz ($2743/oz*).
• SA CDS 188bps*, Brazil 155bps* and Turkey 269bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.28%*, German bund at 2.28%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.38%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.43%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data:

• 08h00: SA M3 money supply and private sector credit extension (September)
• 11h30: UK consumer credit (September)
• 14h30: US advance goods trade balance (September)
• 15h00: US FHFA house price index (August), S&P CoreLogic house price index (August)
• 16h00: US JOLTS job openings (September)
• 16h00: US Conference Board consumer confidence index (October)

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