In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.70/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.71/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the THB (+1.7%), BRL (+1.2%) and ZAR (+0.8%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.5%), MXN (-0.9%) and ARS (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

• Japan’s leading economic indicator increased in July, to 109.5, from 109.1 in June.
• The coincident economic index, which measures current economic conditions, came in higher than expected in July, increasing to 117.1, from 114.1 in June.

• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee commented that he sees increasing warning signs about the outlook for the US labour market.
• He noted that there are likely to be multiple rate cuts over the next year.
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that she doesn’t think the July employment report was a sign of weakening in the labour market.
• She added that the “tightening cycle has come to an end and is soon to start its downward descent”.
• Daly remarked that the likely pace of rate cuts is unknown.

• The US non-farm payrolls (NFP) for August are in the spotlight today.
• NFP are likely to have increased by 165k in August, following an increase of 114k in July.
• Payrolls in the education and construction sectors are likely to be a drag on overall payrolls.
• The market sees payrolls on Friday showing a private payroll figure at around 140k, from 97k in July.
• The unemployment rate is likely to have improved to 4.2% in August, from 4.3% in July.
• Average hourly earnings are likely to have increased by 0.3% m/m in August, following a 0.2% m/m increase in July.
• The Fed will keep a close eye on the data ahead of the 18 September FOMC meeting.

• Locally, the SARB’s gross and net reserves for August are scheduled for release today. 
• Gross reserves came in at $62.27bn in July, while net reserves were at $59.17bn in July.

• Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 5.6% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and up by 22.1% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $72.80/bbl; ($72.69/bbl*).
• Gold is at $2521/oz ($2510/oz*).
• SA CDS 185bps*, Brazil 154bps* and Turkey 270bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 3.72%*, German bund at 2.20%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.33%*, SA’s R2030 at 8.98%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

• 08h00: SA gross and net reserves (August)
• 11h00: Eurozone GDP (Q2:24 – final), employment (Q2:24 – final)
• 14h30: US non-farm payrolls (August), unemployment rate (August)

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