In the loop 01 October 2025

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is trading at R17.25/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.26/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.9%), HUF (+0.7%) and CLP (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-1.6%), THB (-0.5%) and KRW (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

The US government has shut down for the first time in almost seven years.
Democrats voted against a Republican-backed stopgap funding package, which didn’t address their health-care spending demands, in the Senate.
The White House’s Office of Management and Budget instructed government agencies to “execute their plans for an orderly shutdown”.
Federal government workers will be temporarily furloughed, but not essential services such as military troops who will have to work without pay.
President Trump earlier warned that the shutdown would lead to “irreversible” federal job cuts, reiterating yesterday that his administration might fire “a lot” of federal workers in the shutdown.
Many federal government services will be suspended; the shutdown casts doubts over whether official economic data releases, such as Friday’s non-farm payrolls, will go ahead.
Today will see the release of the private sector ADP employment report for September; private payrolls are likely to have increased by 51k, following an increase of 54k in August.
MBA mortgage applications for the week of 26 September and the ISM manufacturing survey data for September are also due out today.

Central Bank watch: the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) this morning kept its repurchase rate unchanged, at 5.50%, for a second consecutive meeting.
The RBI has lowered rates by 100 basis points so far this year and sees the current stance as neutral.
Policymakers are balancing competing priorities, subdued inflation and growth risks from US tariffs on the one side, and the rupee’s record slide on the other.
The Indian government cut consumption taxes recently to support the economy; the tax cuts are likely to ease inflation.

Eurozone CPI data for September will be released today.
Inflation in the region is likely to have quickened in September, to 2.2%, from 2.0% in August.
ECB President Christine Lagarde yesterday said that, while policymakers must remain vigilant, the risks to the outlook appear balanced.
“The risks to inflation appear quite contained in both directions”, Lagarde remarked.
“With policy rates now at 2%, we are well placed to respond if the risks to inflation shift, or if new shocks emerge that threaten our target”, she noted.
“We are in a good place today, but that place is not fixed” Lagarde added.
EU leaders are meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark; expediting national and collective flagship defence projects are on the agenda at the summit.

Locally, the SA manufacturing PMI for September is due out today.
The PMI slid back into contraction in August, declining 1.4 points to 49.5, and likely remained weak in September.

Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 11.2% year-to-date.
The gold price is up this morning, and up by 47.3% year-to-date; gold is seeing its largest rally since 1979 so far this year.

Brent crude oil is currently at $66.30/bbl; ($67.02/bbl*).
Gold is at $3866/oz ($3859/oz*).
SA CDS 167bps*, Brazil 136bps* and Turkey 257bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.15%*, German bund at 2.71%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.28%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.16%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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