In the loop 14 November 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.02/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.99/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.9%), CZK (+0.8%) and HUF (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.0%), IDR (-0.1%) and BRL (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

China’s economic activity weakened more than expected at the start of Q4:25, marked by a record drop in investment and slower industrial output growth.
Industrial production rose 4.9% y/y in October, easing from 6.5% y/y in September.
Fixed asset investment contracted 1.7% in the first 10 months of the year.
Retail sales grew 2.9% y/y, but this was the fifth consecutive month of deceleration, the longest slowdown streak since 2021.

The Eurozone GDP data for Q3:25 (second estimate) is scheduled for release today.
GDP is expected to have expanded by 0.2% q/q in Q3:25, matching the increase in Q2:25.
The Eurozone monthly trade data for September, also due today, will provide further insight into external demand dynamics.
The trade surplus with the US narrowed to a seasonally adjusted €8.1bn in August, from €8.7bn in July, as exports declined faster than imports.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said yesterday that he did not support the Fed’s most recent interest rate cut.
He explained that both anecdotal reports and incoming data pointed to stronger-than-expected underlying economic resilience.
Looking ahead to the 9–10 December FOMC meeting, Kashkari said he will review all new information and believes that there is a strong case for keeping rates on hold.
He joins a number of Fed policymakers who have voiced scepticism about the need for another cut in December.
Some are arguing that holding rates steady would better balance persistent inflation pressures against softening labour market conditions.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem also warned that policymakers should proceed cautiously with further rate reductions while inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
Musalem views the recent cuts as support for the labour market.
However, he reiterated that maintaining sufficiently restrictive policy is still necessary to bring inflation down.

Locally, it is a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
S&P Global Ratings Agency is expected to announce its decision on South Africa’s sovereign credit rating later today.
The preservation of the debt-to-GDP peak this year, as outlined in Wednesday’s MTBPS, should support the rating by reinforcing government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation.
While S&P could resolve the positive outlook with an upgrade, we believe that a delay until next year remains more likely despite their usual preference to address a positive or negative outlook on a sub-investment grade rating within 12 months.
However, the upward revision to the debt-to-GDP trajectory, persistently weak economic growth (despite progress on structural reforms), and additional discretionary spending may keep S&P cautious.
We do not anticipate any positive rating action from Moody’s or Fitch in response to the MTBPS.

Brent crude oil is currently at $64.01/bbl; ($63.01/bbl*).
Gold is at $4187/oz ($4171/oz*).
SA CDS 142bps*, Brazil 141bps* and Turkey 243bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.11%*, German bund at 2.68c%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.69%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.59%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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