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In the loop 30 November 2023

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.72/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R18.66/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the TWD (+0.7%), RUB (+0.6%) and MYR (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers, the COP (-1.0%), BRL (-0.7%) and PEN (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up. 
  • Turkey’s GDP growth for Q3:23 is due out today and is expected to have increased to 5.4% y/y, from 3.8% y/y in Q2:23.
  • Support is expected from the strong performances in retail sales and production, and increased tourism.
  • Eurozone CPI is in the spotlight today and is likely to have moderated to 2.7% y/y in November, from 2.9% y/y in October.
  • Such a moderation is expected despite upward base effects from energy bills; furthermore, the moderation is likely to have been broad-based.
  • Food and core goods inflation likely continued easing in November; strong price gains in 2022 and the beginning of 2023 are now falling out of the annual comparison.
  • Services inflation also likely fell in November.
  • Several countries’ CPI data on the bloc will be released today.
  • The region’s unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged, at 6.5%, in October. 
  • The US Fed Beige book has noted that that US economic activity slowed in recent weeks. 
  • This came on the back of consumers reducing discretionary spending.
  • Travel and tourism activity was generally healthy; the report noted that labour demand continued to ease.
  • Respondents highlighted reductions in headcount through layoffs or attrition, with most districts reporting flat-to-modest increases in employment.
  • US personal income and spending data for October is on the cards today.
  • Personal income is likely to have increased by 0.2% m/m, from 0.3% m/m in September.
  • Spending is likely to have increased by 0.2% m/m in October, after having increased by 0.7% m/m in September.
  • COP28 kicks off in Dubai today until 12 December.
  • The climate conference will see the world taking stock of progress on the Paris Agreement.
  • All eyes will be on the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy; this is crucial to limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C, as envisaged under the Paris Agreement. 
  • Locally, PPI for October is expected to come in at 5.8% y/y, from 5.1% y/y in September. 
  • The monthly Budget balance data for October is scheduled for release today. 
  • The October trade surplus is likely to have compressed to R8.1bn, from R13.1bn in September.
  • Eskom: Stage 5 loadshedding is currently in place until 8pm; Stage 6 loadshedding will follow until 5am tomorrow.
  • Brent crude oil is up this morning, and down by 3.0% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 12.0% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $83.35/bbl; ($83.10/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2042/oz ($2045/oz*).
  • SA CDS 232bps*, Brazil 140bps* and Turkey 332bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.25%*, German bund at 2.43%* and SA 10-year generic at 11.20%*, SA’s R2030 at 9.90%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data: 

  • 09h00: Turkey GDP (Q3:23)
  • 11h30: UK Decision Maker Panel 1 yr CPI expectations (November)
  • 11h30: SA PPI (October)
  • 12h00: Eurozone CPI (November), unemployment rate (October)
  • 14h00: SA trade balance (October), monthly budget balance (October)
  • 15h30: US initial jobless claims (25 November), personal income and spending (October)

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