In the loop 23 October 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.44/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.41/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+0.3%), PLN (+0.3%) and HUF (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the PEN (-0.5%), COP (-0.4%) and THB (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Central bank watch: the Bank of Korea held its base rate at 2.50% today.
The central bank said it is still too early to determine whether conditions will be suitable for a reduction in borrowing costs when the board meets again on 27 November.
The Turkish central bank is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate today.
The decision is likely to be a close call between a modest cut and keeping rates unchanged.

Eurozone consumer confidence for October is scheduled for release today.
Consumer confidence is expected to have deteriorated in October; the index is likely to have slipped further, to -15.0, from -14.9 in September.

Investors are keeping a close watch on developments in the US-China trade talks as officials from both countries prepare to meet this week.
President Trump said on Monday that he expected to reach a fair trade agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping, whom he was scheduled to meet in South Korea next week.
However, on Tuesday, Trump added uncertainty by suggesting that the meeting might not take place.
Meanwhile, reports indicated that the US and India are close to finalising a trade deal.
This could see a tariff reduction on Indian goods to between 15% and 16%, down from the current 50%.

The US government shutdown has entered its fourth week, disrupting the release of several key economic reports.
However, existing home sales data for September remain unaffected.
Sales are expected to have risen by 1.5% m/m, to 4.06 million units, following a 0.2% m/m decline in August (4.00 million units).
September’s improvement likely reflects the impact of falling mortgage rates, which has provided some support to housing market activity.

Oil prices rose for a second consecutive day yesterday, gaining about 2%.
The increase was supported by stronger US energy consumption and optimism over potential progress in US trade negotiations with both China and India.
Oil prices are up further this morning after the US imposed sanctions on Russia’s largest producers.
President Trump intensified pressure on President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.
Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 13.0% year-to-date.
The gold price is down this morning, and up by 55.7% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $64.97/bbl; ($62.59/bbl*).
Gold is at $4086/oz ($4098/oz*).
SA CDS 162bps*, Brazil 144bps* and Turkey 266bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 3.95%*, German bund at 2.56%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.04%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.92%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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