In the loop 02 April 2026

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.00/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.79/$*).
EM currencies were mostly stronger yesterday; the CLP (+1.4%), HUF (+1.3%) and ZAR (+1.3%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-0.6%) was weaker.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: in his address to the US nation, President Trump again threatened further escalation of the conflict with Iran if no deal was reached, undermining expectations for a winding down of the conflict.
He vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks, once more citing potential attacks on power plants.
This comes as his earlier claims of progress in talks to end the war were denied by Tehran.
Trump said that his “core strategic objectives” in Iran were “nearing completion” but signalled that the war would continue for at least several weeks.
Oil prices rose as expectations for an imminent resolution to the five-week conflict in the Middle East faded.
Trump also told the “countries of the world” affected by the global energy crisis that they would have to take the lead on breaking Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.
The UK will host talks between the foreign ministers of 35 countries today aimed at forming a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The proposed coalition was intended to be deployed after a ceasefire, but is being fast-tracked.
The UK prime minister said that talks would “assess all viable diplomatic and political measures that we can take to restore freedom of navigation, guarantee the safety of trapped ships and seafarers, and resume the movement of vital commodities”.

UK Decision Maker Panel (DMP) inflation expectations data for March is due this morning.
Inflation expectations are expected to have trended upwards.
One-year ahead inflation expectations likely rose to 3.5% in March, from 3.0% in February.
Shorter-term expectations are also likely to have increased; three-month inflation expectations were 3.4% in February.
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband hosted supermarket bosses to explore how they could ease the cost of living amid pressures as a result of the Iran war.
The UK Food and Drink Federation hiked its food inflation forecast for the year in light of the conflict, warning that food inflation may reach 9% by the end of 2026.

The US trade balance for February will be released this afternoon.
The trade deficit is expected to have widened in February due to lower exports.
US labour market data for March will be in focus from today, with policymakers hoping for a clearer read on the pace of job growth after a volatile start to the year.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending 28 March are expected to have tracked broadly sideways, with claims expected at 212k, after coming in at 210k in the previous week.
Challenger job cuts for March are also due out today.
The non-farm payrolls (NFP) for March will be released tomorrow.

Locally, Stats SA will publish electricity generated and available for distribution data for February today.
January saw a decline of 6.2% y/y in electricity generated for distribution.

Brent crude oil is currently at $106.96/bbl; ($101.16/bbl*).
Gold is at $4650/oz ($4787/oz*).
SA CDS 187bps*, Brazil 137bps* and Turkey 284bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.32%*, German bund at 2.99%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.06%*, SA's R2035 at 8.90%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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