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In the loop 04 December 2023

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is unchanged this morning, at R18.65/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R18.65/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the COP (+1.7%), CLP (+1.7%) and ZAR (+1.2%) were the biggest gainers, the RUB (-1.2%), KRW (-1.2%) and TWD (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down. 
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, at 4.35%, tomorrow. 
  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to hold rates steady on Friday.
  • Australia’s GDP for Q3:23, scheduled for release on Wednesday, is expected to show growth as having slowed, even as this economy continues to benefit from inbound migration.
  • In the Eurozone, German industrial production for October, due out Thursday, will shed light on the state of industry, where activity seems to have passed a low point.
  • The Riksbank meeting minutes are due out today and are expected to reflect a relatively more hawkish bias than the bank’s Monetary Policy Report. 
  • The National Bank of Poland will meet on Wednesday and is expected to keep rates on hold, at 5.75%.
  • Turkish and Russian CPI for November are on the cards this week; both countries’ CPI prints are expected to have increased in November.
  • The US JOLTS job openings for October, due out on Wednesday, are likely to have fallen.
  • Non-farm payrolls (NFP), due out on Friday, are expected to have increased solidly in November following a resolution to the United Auto Workers (UAW) strikes.
  • The unemployment rate is likely to have remained steady, at 3.9%, in November.
  • The ISM services gauge likely increased in November, to 52.3, from 51.8 in October. 
  • The October trade balance is due out on Wednesday; the deficit is likely to have widened in October, driven by a decrease in exports and a modest increase in imports.
  • Locally, GDP growth for Q3:23 is in the spotlight tomorrow and is expected at 0% q/q (sa), from 0.6% q/q (sa) in Q2:23.
  • On a y/y basis, GDP growth is expected at -0.1% in Q3:23, from 1.6% y/y in Q2:23.
  • The industry-wide PMI for November is also due out tomorrow; the index is currently below the 50-benchmark line, at 48.9.
  • The current account balance for Q3:23 is scheduled for release on Thursday; the deficit is likely to have eased to 1.1% of GDP in Q3:23, from a deficit of 2.3% of GDP in Q2:23.
  • The BER will release the Q4:23 consumer confidence data on Thursday; the index improved to -16 in Q3:23.
  • The SARB’s gross and net reserves for November are also due for release on Thursday. 
  • The October electricity production and consumption data will also be released on Thursday.
  • Eskom: Stage 3 loadshedding is currently in place until 4pm; Stage 4 loadshedding will follow at 4pm. 
  • Brent crude oil is down this morning, and down by 8.8% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 14.5% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $78.31/bbl; ($78.88/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2088/oz ($2072/oz*).
  • SA CDS 236bps*, Brazil 147bps* and Turkey 338bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.19%*, German bund at 2.36%* and SA 10-year generic at 11.26%*, SA’s R2030 at 9.97%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close. 

Key events and data: 

  • 11h30: Eurozone Sentix investor confidence (December)
  • 17h00: US factory orders, durable goods orders (October)

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