In the loop 02 December 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.17/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R18.05/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the RUB (+1.4%), BRL (+0.7%) and PLN (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-0.7%), PEN (-0.4%) and TRY (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the National Bank of Poland is expected to pause again since the last cut in October 2023.
The central bank is likely to keep its policy rate on hold, at 5.75%, on Wednesday.
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to hold rates steady, at 6.5%, on Friday.

Japan’s wage growth data for October, due on Friday, likely picked up.
An increase is likely to support the case for the BOJ to resume rate hikes as soon as January.
Australia’s GDP for Q3:24 is due out on Wednesday and is expected at 0.5% q/q, from 0.2% q/q in Q2:24.
The UK Nationwide house price index for November is scheduled for release today.
The UK house price recovery is expected to have continued given less restrictive monetary policy and rising real income.
German industrial production data for October, due out on Wednesday, is expected to offer further insight into how industry has been faring in Q4:24.
Turkish CPI for November, due out tomorrow, is expected at 46.3% y/y, from 48.6% y/y in October.

The US ISM manufacturing index for November is due out today; an increase to 47.6 is expected, from 46.5 in October.
The ISM services index, due for release on Wednesday, likely slipped to 55.5, from 56.0 in October.
The Fed’s Beige Book, scheduled for release on Wednesday, will likely highlight a post-election surge in consumer and business sentiment.
The US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings for October, scheduled for release tomorrow, are likely to have increased.
October JOLTS likely increased to 7.470 million, from 7.443 million in September.
Non-farm payrolls (NFP) for November, in the spotlight on Friday, are expected to have increased, by 200k, following an increase of 12k in October.
The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.1%, in November.

The BER manufacturing PMI for November is due for release today; the index slipped to 52.6 in October, from 53.3 in September.
The November Naamsa vehicle sales also due today; vehicle sales increased by 5.5% y/y in October.
GDP growth for Q3:24 will be in the spotlight tomorrow and is expected at 0.4% q/q (sa), from an increase of 0.4% q/q (sa) in Q2:24.
On a y/y basis, GDP growth is expected at 1.2% in Q3:24, from 0.3% in Q2:24.
The industry-wide PMI for November is due out on Wednesday; the index is currently above the 50 benchmark, at 50.6.
The BER will release the Q3:24 consumer confidence data on Wednesday; the index improved to -5 in Q2:24.
The current account for Q3:24 is scheduled for release on Thursday; the deficit narrowed to 0.9% of GDP in Q2:24, from a deficit of 1.5% of GDP in Q1:24.
Electricity production and consumption for October are scheduled for release on Thursday.
The SARB’s gross and net reserves for November are scheduled for release on Friday.
Gross reserves were $63.03bn in October, and net reserves were $61.2bn in October.

Brent crude oil is currently at $72.21/bbl; ($72.94/bbl*).
Gold is at $2623/oz ($2643/oz*).
SA CDS 184bps*, Brazil 163bps* and Turkey 256bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.21%*, German bund at 2.08%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.09%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.13%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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