In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.63/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R17.65/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the CZK (+0.3%), COP (+0.2%) and PEN (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the IDR (-0.9%), ARS (-0.7%) and INR (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

• China’s manufacturing PMI for August increased to 49.4, from 49.3 in July.
• The services PMI increased to 50.3 in August, from 50.1 in July.
• The composite PMI also improved in August, to 50.5, from 50.2 in July.

• Japan’s wage growth data, due on Friday, is expected to have accelerated in July, likely boosted by summer bonuses and spring wage deals. 
• This could give the BOJ more confidence to hike its benchmark interest rate in October despite trade headwinds from US tariffs.

• UK house prices for August, due out today, likely rose modestly, driven by improving affordability.
• House prices are likely to have increased by 2.7% y/y in August, after having increased by 2.4% y/y in July.
• Eurozone inflation for August, scheduled for release tomorrow, is likely to come in at 2.0% y/y, matching July’s increase.

• The US labour data is in the spotlight this week.
• The US JOLTS job openings for July are on the cards Wednesday and are likely have declined to 7.373m, from 7.437m in June.
• The private sector ADP report for August is due out on Thursday; private payrolls are likely to have increased by 80k in August, following an increase of 104k in July.
• The non-farm payrolls (NFP) for August, in the spotlight on Friday, are expected to have increased, by 75k, up from an increase of 73k in July.
• The unemployment rate is likely to have to have increased to 4.3% in August, from 4.2% in July.
• The headline ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, due out tomorrow, is expected to have improved, to 49.0, from 48.0 in July. 
• The services PMI, scheduled for release on Thursday, will likely see services activity expanding in July.
• The July trade data will be released on Thursday; the data will likely show the US trade deficit widened again.
• The US Fed Beige Book, out on Wednesday, is expected to show that economic activity has picked up modestly since mid-July. 
• While regional Fed surveys point to a further slowdown in manufacturing, the services sector, which is largely shielded from tariffs, has continued to strengthen.

• Locally, the BER manufacturing PMI for August is due for release today; the index increased to 50.8 in July, from 48.5 in June.
• The August Naamsa vehicle sales are also on the cards today; vehicle sales increased by 15.6% y/y in July.
• The industry-wide PMI for August is due out on Wednesday; the index is currently around the 50 benchmark, at 50.3.
• The BER business confidence for Q3:25 is due out on Wednesday; consumer confidence improved to 40 in Q2:25.
• Electricity production and consumption for June are scheduled for release on Thursday.
• The SARB’s gross and net reserves for August are due out on Friday. 
• Gross reserves came in at $69.16bn in July, while net reserves came in at $65.14bn in July. 

• Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 10.0% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and up by 32.5% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $67.20/bbl; ($68.12/bbl*).
• Gold is at $3478/oz ($3447/oz*).
• SA CDS 175bps*, Brazil 136bps* and Turkey 264bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.22%*, German bund at 2.72%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.69%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.59%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data: 

• 08h00: UK Nationwide house price index (August)
• 10h00: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI (August – final)
• 10h30: US consumer credit (July), mortgage approvals (July), S&P Global manufacturing PMI (August – final)
• 11h00: Eurozone unemployment rate (July)
• 11h00: SA BER manufacturing PMI (August)
• SA Naamsa vehicle sales (August)
• US Labour Day

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