In the loop 10 September 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is steady this morning, at R16.04/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.03/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+1.0%), IDR (+0.7%) and COP (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-0.5%), CLP (-0.3%) and INR (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: Tehran has signalled that it was prepared for a more intense and prolonged confrontation, while continuing military operations across the Gulf region.
Iran stepped up attacks against US naval assets, commercial shipping, and US-linked military facilities.

Central bank watch: the ECB is largely expected to hike its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps today.
Investors have increasingly priced in the possibility of a further rate hike as inflation pressures have intensified.
The case for tighter policy has been strengthened by the region's latest inflation data, which showed headline CPI rising to 3.3% y/y in August, from 2.9% y/y in July.
The increase largely reflected higher energy prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to global energy markets.

The UK housing market showed tentative signs of stabilisation in August, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Residential Market Survey.
The RICS house price balance improved to a five-month high of -28 in August, from an upwardly revised -29 in July.
The negative reading indicates that more surveyors continued to report falling rather than rising prices.
Buyer demand also became less weak, with the new buyer enquiries balance improving to -19, the strongest reading since January.
Sales expectations rose sharply, to -3 in August, from -13 in July.
RICS said that the market appeared to be gradually finding its footing as key activity indicators became progressively less negative.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday presented an upbeat assessment of the US economy.
He argued that the Trump administration's policies had laid the foundation for stronger and more sustainable growth.
Bessent said that economic growth was reaccelerating, supported by tax cuts, deregulation, increased investment, and a resurgence in domestic manufacturing.
He added that the underlying economy remained “very, very strong” despite the disruption caused by the Iran conflict.
He has argued that achieving around 3% annual GDP growth, alongside greater spending discipline, could allow the US to “grow its way out” of its mounting debt burden rather than having to rely on higher taxes.

US existing home sales for August are due out today and are expected to have fallen further.
Pending home sales fell sharply in August, pointing to another weak month for existing home sales in August.
PPI for August is expected to come in at 5.3% y/y, from 4,7% y/y in July.
On a m/m basis, PPI is likely to have increased by 0.4% in August, after having flatlined in July.

Locally, the current account for Q2:26 is scheduled for release today; the 2.4% of GDP surplus in Q1:26 is expected to have swung into a deficit of 1.3% of GDP in Q2:26.
Mining production for July is also due out today; production is expected to have decreased by 4.0% y/y in July, matching June's decline.
Mining production increased by 0.3% m/m in June.
Manufacturing production for July is scheduled for release today; production is likely to have declined further in July, by 2.0% y/y, after having decreased by 1.7% y/y in June.
On a m/m basis, production is likely to have increased by 0.2% in July, following a 0.9% increase in June.

Brent crude oil is currently at $100.96/bbl; ($101.21/bbl*).
Gold is at $4423/oz ($4398/oz*).
SA CDS 115bps*, Brazil 113bps* and Turkey 219bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.84%*, German bund at 3.44%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.85%*, SA's R2035 at 8.64%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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