In the loop 23 June 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.07/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R17.99/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the HUF (+0.9%), ZAR (+0.8%) and PLN (+0.8%) were the biggest gainers; the MXN (-0.4%), COP (-0.4%) and BRL (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

Central bank watch: the Bank of Thailand is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75% on Wednesday.

China’s industrial profits for May, due on Friday, likely fell, underscoring the ramifications of the trade war.

The Eurozone and UK PMIs for June are both due out today.
The Eurozone PMI survey for June will provide an indication of how the economy is holding up after the boost to activity.
The UK PMI survey is likely to continue its recovery from its sharp fall in April.
The German Ifo survey for June will be watched for further clues on how far US trade policies will continue to overshadow Germany’s spending plans.

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow and to the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.
Powell is expected to face questions about monetary policy and the prospects for future interest rate cuts.
Existing home sales for May are due out today; May’s increase in mortgage rates likely continued weighing on existing home sales.
The US Conference Board consumer sentiment index for June, due out tomorrow, likely increased to 99.8, from 98.0 in May.
US new homes sales for May are scheduled for release on Wednesday; a 6.7% m/m decline is expected in May, following a 10.9% m/m increase in April.
The Q1:25 GDP (third estimate), out on Thursday, is expected to come in at -0.2% q/q for Q1:25, unchanged from the previous estimate.
The release is expected to reflect an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending compared to Q4:24, and a downturn in government spending.
Personal income and spending for May are scheduled for release on Friday.
The core PCE deflator is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in May, matching April’s increase.

Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for April is scheduled for release tomorrow; the index increased to 115.4 in March.
The Q1:25 non-farm payrolls are also due out tomorrow; payrolls increased by 0.1% q/q in Q4:24.
The May PPI is on the cards on Thursday and is expected to come in at 0.5% y/y, matching April’s increase.
The BER’s consumer confidence index for Q2:25 is due on Thursday; consumer confidence deteriorated to -20 in Q1:25.

The oil price is up following US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites over the weekend.
Iran has commented that all options for retaliation are open; US President Trump has said that greater attacks are likely unless Tehran makes peace.
Markets are awaiting Iran’s response.
Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 4.3% year-to-date.
The gold price is up this morning, and up by 27.8% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $77.83/bbl; ($77.01/bbl*).
Gold is at $3353/oz ($3368/oz*).
SA CDS 197bps*, Brazil 157bps* and Turkey 301bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.37%*, German bund at 2.51%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.09%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.03%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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