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In the loop 23 January 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.09/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.14/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+1.5%), HUF (+1.3%) and RUB (+1.1%) were the biggest gainers; the THB (-1.0%), MXN (-0.2%) and CNY (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • Central bank watch: the BOJ kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% today.
  • The central bank lifted its GDP growth forecast for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 and its core-core inflation forecast above the 2% target across the forecast horison.
 
  • Day 4 of the World Economic Forum was characterised by a blend of high-level geopolitical developments, strategic discussions on technology and economic headwinds, and renewed debate over the state of global cooperation. 
  • US President Trump announced and signed a new international initiative, the Board of Peace, intended to support conflict resolution efforts, with a particular focus on Gaza.
  • However, several traditional allies voiced reservations about its scope and potential implications. 
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky used his address in Davos to criticise European leaders for what he described as insufficient support for Ukraine.
  • He argued that Europe “loves to discuss the future but avoids taking action” against Russia. 
  • He urged European governments to show greater unity and to act more decisively and independently of the US.
 
  • UK consumer sentiment rose slightly in January, but remained weak, according to the GfK Institute. 
  • The consumer confidence index came in at -16 in January, from -17 in December, as confidence in personal finances over the next year rose.
  • Consumers expectations for the general economic situation over the coming twelve months fell in January.
 
  • The Eurozone and UK PMI data releases for January are due out today.
  • The Eurozone composite PMI survey for November will likely show that the region’s economy continued to expand modestly despite the rise in US tariffs.
  • The composite index is expected to have increased to 51.9 in January, from 51.5 in December.
  • The manufacturing index is likely to have increased, albeit remaining in contraction, while the services index is also expected to have increased.
  • The UK composite, manufacturing and services indices are all likely to have increased in January.
  • The composite index is seen rising to 51.5 in January, from 51.4 in December.
 
  • US personal spending rose at a solid pace in November, by 0.5% m/m, the same as in October, underscoring consumer resilience at the start of the holiday-shopping season.
  • Spending was led by the strongest increase in outlays for goods since July last year, including on cars, apparel and gasoline.
  • The Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, core PCE, rose 0.2% m/m in November, matching October’s increase, and 2.8% y/y.
  • Personal income increased by 0.3% m/m in November, after having increased by 0.1% m/m in October. 
 
  • The US PMI data releases for January are due out today.
  • The composite index is expected to have increased to 53.0 in January, from 52.7 in December.
  • Both the services and manufacturing PMIs are likely to have improved in January.
  • The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index tor January is on the cards today and is expected to have remained unchanged, at 54.0.
  • Consumers remain anxious about labour market conditions, which may keep overall sentiment depressed.
 
  • Locally, it’s a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 6.1% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 14.8% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $64.54/bbl; ($64.06/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4957/oz ($4936/oz*).
  • SA CDS 135bps*, Brazil 132bps* and Turkey 211bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.24%*, German bund at 2.88%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.36%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.22%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 09h00: UK retail sales (December)
  • 11h00: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing, services and composite PMI (January)
  • 11h30: UK S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (January)
  • 16h45: US S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (January)
  • 17h00: US leading index (November), University of Michigan sentiment, 1 yr and 5-10 yr inflation expectations (January – final)
 

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