In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.13/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R18.08/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the THB (+0.2%), COP (+0.2%) and PEN (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the HUF (-0.8%), CZK (-0.8%) and RUB (-0.8%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

• The UK’s GfK consumer confidence improved to -18 in November, from -21 in October.
• Households are more optimistic about their own personal finances and the broader economic outlook.
• The improvement came on the back of budget uncertainty over tax and spending plans subsided. 

• BOE policymaker Catherine Mann commented yesterday that cutting rates by 100 bps over the next year may be too aggressive.
• She noted that it “would not be consistent with my view on prospects for demand conditions going forward and the underlying inflation persistence”.
• Mann expressed support for an “activist” approach, which implies holding rates for longer, then delivering a bigger cut once it was clear that “underlying inflation dynamics” had changed.

• The US, UK and Eurozone flash PMI data for November will be released today. 
• These indices will provide an indication of whether economic activity is shaping up in the final quarter of the year.
• The UK composite PMI is expected to have slipped, albeit only marginally, to 51.7 in November, from 51.8 in September.
• Both the manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to have remained steady in November.
• The Eurozone composite PMI is expected to have remained at 50 in November.
• The manufacturing and services PMIS are also likely to have remained unchanged in November.
• The US composite PMI is likely to have increased to 54.3 in November, from 54.1 in October.
• The manufacturing PMI is likely to have improved, while the services PMI is expected to have moved sideways.

• The US University of Michigan sentiment (final estimate) index for November is also due out today.
• The sentiment index is likely to have been revised upwards, to 73.9, from the previous estimate of 73.0, and 70.5 in October.
• One-year ahead inflation expectations are likely to come in at 2.7% in November, from 2.7% in October.
• The 5-10-year ahead inflation expectations are expected at 3.0% in November, the same as in October.

• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expects interest rates to “a fair bit lower”. 
• He expressed confidence that inflation is easing towards the Fed’s target objective alongside a solid US labour market.

• Locally, it’s a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.

• Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 3.5% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and up by 30.3% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $74.32/bbl; ($74.23/bbl*).
• Gold is at $2688/oz ($2671/oz*).
• SA CDS 187bps*, Brazil 156bps* and Turkey 259bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.40%*, German bund at 2.31%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.15%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.19%*.

* Denotes yesterday’ close. 

Key events and data:

• 09h00: UK retail sales (October)
• 11h00: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing, services and composite PMI (November)
• 11h30: S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (November)
• 16h45: US S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (November)
• 17h00: US University of Michigan sentiment, 1 yr and 5-10 yr inflation expectations (November – final)

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