In the loop 25 September 2026

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is trading at R16.41/$ this morning, after closing around that level yesterday (R16.41/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the HUF (+0.2%), CZK (+0.2%) and ZAR (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.2%), PEN (-0.7%) and THB (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: Iranian mediators have submitted a new “7-day” plan to the White House to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in seven days and restart talks towards a final resolution of the war.
The Iranian foreign minister noted that the plan is contingent on the US meeting “certain conditions” and that Tehran is “not in a hurry” to secure agreement based on its new proposal.
The proposal builds on the MoU agreed between the US and Iran in June; the Trump administration has previously said that it will not return to the MoU.

Central Bank watch: the Norges Bank hiked their policy rate by 25 bps to 4.50% yesterday, the second hike this year.
The bank signalled that it would hike rates again if it is necessary to tame consumer inflation pressures further.
The Swedish Riksbank kept their benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, the lowest level in the Eurozone, earlier on Thursday.
The hawkish hold from the Riksbank came with a warning that a hike this year is now more likely, with economic growth set to be robust while inflation risks mount.

US-China summit: President Trump welcomed Chinese President Xi to the White House yesterday.
Trump said that the two nations have made “tremendous strides” on issues including trade.
Xi said that they must “coexist in peace” and should “hold the line of no conflict and no confrontation”.

US initial jobless claims slipped lower last week, pointing to companies being hesitant to dismiss workers.
Initial jobless claims declined to 197k in the week ended 19 September, one of the lowest readings since 1969, from a revised 198k in the previous week.
These claims have been hovering around historical lows for the past few months.
Hiring, on the other hand, has been uneven, signalling a broadly stable labour market on balance.
US new home sales rose to a 684k annualized pace in August, from an upwardly revised 643k in July.
Sales were up 6.4% y/y in August, after dropping by 4.3% y/y in July.
The still-sluggish pace of new home sales in August likely slowed in September, with mortgage applications declining.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 7.12% in the week ending 18 September, from 6.97% in the prior week.

UK GfK consumer confidence surprised on the upside in September.
The consumer confidence index increased slightly to -13, from -14 in August, counter to expectations for a dip to -16.
This is the third consecutive month of improvement in consumer confidence.
Both the outlook for the economy and for personal finances in 12 months' time rose.
However, consumers rated the climate for major purchases as somewhat weaker in September.

Japan's S&P Global composite PMI softened to 52.5 in September, from 53.5 in August.
Both the manufacturing and services PMI came in lower in September, but remained in expansionary terrain.
The manufacturing PMI dipped to 54.1, from 54.9 in August.
Japan's services PMI declined to 51.6 in September after registering 52.5 in August.

Brent crude oil is currently at $105.72/bbl; ($106.60/bbl*).
Gold is at $4264/oz ($4273/oz*).
SA CDS 129bps*, Brazil 123bps* and Turkey 248bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 5.20%*, German bund at 3.60%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.90%**, SA's R2035 at 8.70%**.

* Denotes yesterday's close; **denotes Wednesday's close.

Key events and data:

10h00: Eurozone M3 money supply (August)
14h30: US durable goods orders (August)
16h00: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, inflation expectations (September – final)
17h00: US Kansas Fed services activity (September)

Read PDF