South Africa
23 January 2025
Electricity Tracker
Shireen Darmalingam
- Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) was at 52.6% in Q1:24 and improved to an average of 61.29% in Q2:24. The third quarter saw a more significant increase in the EAF, to more than 70% earlier in the quarter (and for the first time since mid-2020), which supports our assumption of a further recovery in economic activity. The EAF in 2024 is at an average of 60%. This is above the average of 54.7% in 2023. The improvement in the EAF is largely on the back of a decline in unplanned outages. Eskom remains focused on achieving financial and operational sustainability through continued improvements in the EAF, aiming for 70%, and on a sustainable basis, by March 2025.
- The unplanned outage factor (ratio of energy losses over a given time to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time) was at 30.57% in Q1:24 and dropped to 27.14% in Q2:24; it ended the year at 24.8%. It is currently up slightly, at 29.7%. The planned outage factor (planned maintenance) ended 2024 just above 19%, up from an average of 11% in Q3:24.
- The decrease in the level of loadshedding by several stages in Q1:24, and the suspension of loadshedding since 26 March 2024, came on the back of a combination of factors, including an increase in private-sector electricity self-generation capacity. Lower levels of unplanned outages have contributed significantly to the improvement of the grid and the suspension of loadshedding last year.
- SA has experienced a total of 1,656 hours loadshedding in 2024. This translates into 69 full days of loadshedding. There were 289 full days of loadshedding in 2023. SA has experienced cumulative loadshedding of 2,886 GWh in 2024. It was a cumulative 16,823 GWh in 2023.
- President Cyril Ramaphosa and Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa this week, at the World Economic Forum (WEF), shared the significant strides that SA has achieved in energy stability, regulatory reforms and future energy plans that should enable inclusive economic growth. This comes after significant loadshedding in 2023 forced the government to implement energy reforms. President Ramaphosa demonstrated the energy reforms and market transformation SA undertook to alleviate loadshedding challenges. He also highlighted that these reforms saw private sector participation, renewable energy investments, and global leadership in energy transition. The president commented that government is now focused on increasing generation capacity from 48GW to 78GW by 2035, with significant investments in renewable energy, natural gas, and nuclear power in the pipeline.
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