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In the loop 12 January 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.47/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.49/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the RUB (+1.9%), CLP (+0.4%) and BRL (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-0.5%), MYR (-0.3%) and RON (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • Central bank watch: the Bank of Korea is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged when it meets on Thursday.
 
  • In China, December trade data will be released on Wednesday. 
  • Exports are expected to have remained resilient despite a drag from higher tariffs on shipments to the US. 
  • Credit data, due on Friday, is expected to remain soft and should reinforce the view that there is room for monetary easing in 2026.
 
  • The UK monthly GDP data for November, due on Thursday, is likely to confirm that the economy ended 2025 on a weak note.
  • GDP is expected to have risen by 0.1% m/m in November, following a 0.1% m/m contraction in October.
  • Industrial and manufacturing output data for November will also be released on Thursday.
  • Industrial production is expected to have stagnated, after rising by 1.1% m/m in October, while manufacturing output is forecast to have increased by 0.4% m/m, following a 0.5% m/m gain previously.
  • Germany’s annual GDP figures, also due on Thursday, are expected to show modest growth in 2025, supported by higher public spending aimed at bolstering economic performance in 2026.
  • Eurozone trade data, scheduled for Thursday, will be closely watched for signs of continued weakness in trade with the US and for evidence that China may be diverting goods from the US to the region.
 
  • The US December CPI report will be in the spotlight this week. 
  • Headline inflation is expected to have held steady at 2.7% y/y in December, unchanged from November, while core CPI is expected to have edged up to 2.7% y/y, from 2.6% y/y.
  • The NFIB small business optimism index likely rose to 99.5 in December, from 99.0 in November.
  • Existing home sales for December, due on Wednesday, are expected to have increased by 2.2% m/m, following a 0.5% m/m rise in November. 
  • Retail sales for November and business inventories for October will also be released on Wednesday.
  • The Empire State manufacturing index for January, due on Friday, is expected to have improved to 1.0, from -3.9 in December.
 
  • Locally, the data calendar is relatively light.
  • Electricity production and distribution figures for November are scheduled for release on Thursday.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 4.3% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 5.9% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $63.44/bbl; ($63.34/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4572/oz ($4509/oz*).
  • SA CDS 135bps*, Brazil 136bps* and Turkey 216bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.16%*, German bund at 2.86%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.45%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.31%*.
 

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 11h30: Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index (January)
 

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