In the loop 13 August 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.58/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.55/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+1.5%), ZAR (+1.2%) and BRL (+1.0%) were the biggest gainers; the TWD (-0.4%), TRY (-0.1%) and IDR (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the Bank of Thailand's rate decision will likely be a close call, with a rate cut likely due to downside risks to the growth outlook.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin has noted the uncertainty over the direction of the US economy as decreasing.
He pointed to tax legislation, tariff deals, and rebounding consumer and business sentiment.
He added though that it is still unclear whether the Fed should focus more on controlling inflation, or on bolstering the job market.
Barkin remarked that “as the visibility continues to improve, we are well positioned to adjust our policy stance as needed”.
Barkin noted that he would prefer “to keep his options open until he has to decide on whether to adjust rates”.

President Trump has announced that EJ Antoni will head the Bureau for Labor Statistics (BLS).
Antoni has since proposed pausing releasing the BLS’s closely watched jobs report each month on the back of concerns about accuracy and methodology.
He added that the agency should keep “publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data”.
Antoni stressed declining response rates to BLS employer surveys, now reportedly below 50%, as a central concern.
He has since backed away from the idea of pausing the labour publication.

Locally, the SACCI business confidence index for July is scheduled for release today.
Business confidence rose to 115.8 in May, from 114.9 in April.
The June retail sales data will be out on Wednesday; retail sales likely increased by 3.7% y/y in June, following a 4.2% y/y increase in May.
On a m/m basis, retail sales are likely to have increased by 0.3% in June, after having increased by 0.1% in May.

SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago yesterday reiterated his case for a 3% inflation target.
Kganyago argued that a lower target could improve the country’s risk profile, reduce debt levels, and curb price-growth volatility.
He added that the SARB hopes to deliver this with its preference for having inflation settle at the lower end of our 3% to 6% target range.
However, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is yet to sign off on a new inflation goal.
National Treasury and the SARB have been involved in technical work since February last year to formally alter the current target.

Brent crude oil is currently at $66.18/bbl; ($66.12/bbl*).
Gold is at $3347/oz ($3348/oz*).
SA CDS 178bps*, Brazil 137bps* and Turkey 275bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.28%*, German bund at 2.74%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.74%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.74%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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