In the loop 14 July 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.93/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R17.94/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the THB (+0.6%), COP (+0.3%) and TWD (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-5.0%), ZAR (-1.0%) and CLP (-0.9%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: Bank Indonesia is likely to leave its key rate unchanged at 5.50% on Wednesday.
Holding rates steady would assist in ensuring that the IDR remains anchored as the US rolls out its tariff announcements.

China GDP, economy activity and credit data will be the main focus in the week ahead.
GDP growth is likely to come in at 5.1% y/y in Q2:25, from 5.4% y/y in Q1:25.
Japan’s CPI for June is scheduled for release on Friday.

The UK data on inflation and wages, due out this week, will be closely monitored by the BOE.
CPI for June, out on Wednesday, is expected to have remained steady, at 3.4% y/y.
Private sector pay growth (out on Thursday) is expected to have eased to 4.8% in the three months to May, from 5.1% previously.
The final Eurozone CPI, scheduled for release on Thursday, is likely to confirm that headline inflation edged up in June, to 2.0% y/y.

The US Empire manufacturing survey for July is due out tomorrow; the index is expected rise modestly to -9.6 in July, signalling that activity continued to contract but at a slower pace than June.
The US June CPI will be in focus this week (tomorrow) and is likely to come in at 2.6% y/y, from 2.4% y/y in May.
On a m/m basis, headline CPI is likely to have increased by 0.3% in June, after having increased by 0.1% in May.
The Fed will keep an eye on the data for larger tariff-related price increases that may occur over the summer.
PPI for June, out on Wednesday, is expected at 2.5% y/y, from 2.6% y/y in May.
The Fed’s Beige Book for July is scheduled for release on Wednesday.
The report is likely to describe economic activity as little changed since the June report, and it may continue to reflect the cautious tone of recent editions.
Retail sales for June, due out on Thursday, were likely flat in June, after a 0.9% m/m decline in May.
The NAHB housing market index for July is also due for release on Thursday.
Homebuilders likely became slightly more pessimistic in July, even as mortgage rates fell.
Housing starts and building permits for June are due out on Friday.
Housing starts are likely to have increased in June, while building permits are expected to have slipped.
The University of Michigan sentiment index for July is also due out on Friday.
The sentiment index is likely to have improved to 61.5 in July, from 60.7 in June.

Locally, mining production for May is due out tomorrow; production declined by 7.7% y/y in April.
Mining production increased by 0.6% m/m in April.
The May retail sales data will be released on Wednesday; retail sales is likely to have increased by 4.5% y/y in May, following a 5.1% y/y increase in April.

Brent crude oil is currently at $70.51/bbl; ($70.36/bbl*).
Gold is at $3357/oz ($3355/oz*).
SA CDS 193bps*, Brazil 148bps* and Turkey 285bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.40%*, German bund at 2.72%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.96%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.88%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF