In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.48/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R18.57/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+5.0%), CLP (+0.7%) and THB (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the ZAR (-0.5%), PLN (-0.4%) and HUF (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

• Central bank watch: the Bank of Russia will meet today and will likely keep its policy rate at 21% as it attempts to bring inflation down.

• Eurozone GDP for Q4:24 is due out today and is expected to come in at 0.0% q/q, from 0.4% q/q in Q3:24.
• GDP growth in the region is likely to have been dragged down by Germany.
• On a y/y basis, GDP growth is expected at 0.9% in Q4:24, the same as in Q3:24.

• US President Trump yesterday announced that he would impose reciprocal restrictions on trading partners that put levies on US exports, possibly as soon as April.
• These tariffs come in retaliation to a broader array of rules, regulations and taxes found to be unacceptable by the Trump administration.
• The Trump administration noted that these reciprocal restrictions would level the playing field between US manufacturers and foreign competitors.
• The tariff increases would be customized for each country with the goal of starting trade new negotiations.
• This follows the announcement of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.

• A NY Fed report noted that the share of outstanding US consumer debt that’s in delinquency increased in Q4:24 – to the highest in almost five years.
• Consumer debt in delinquency increased to 3.6% in Q4:24.
• Total household debt, including mortgages, student loans, auto loans and credit card debt increased by 0.5% in Q4:24, to a record $18 trillion.
• The report highlighted that consumers are increasingly struggling financially because of elevated interest rates.
• The report also noted auto loans as a significant source of strain.

• US retail sales for January, out today, are expected to have declined 0.2% m/m, following a 0.4% m/m increase in December.
• Industrial production for January is also on the cards and likely increased by 0.3% m/m, following a 0.9% m/m increase in December.
• Manufacturing production and business inventories for January are also scheduled for release.

• Locally, it is a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.

• Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 0.8% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and up by 11.6% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $75.25/bbl; ($75.02/bbl*).
• Gold is at $2928/oz ($2919/oz*).
• SA CDS 199bps*, Brazil 169bps* and Turkey 248bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.52%*, German bund at 2.41%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.53%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.54%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data: 

• 12h00: Eurozone GDP (Q4:24), employment (Q4:24)
• 15h30: US retail sales (January)
• 16h15: US industrial production (January), capacity utilisation (January), manufacturing production (January)
• 17h00: US business inventories (December)

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