In the loop 05 December 2023

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.84/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R18.83/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the MYR (+0.4%), THB (+0.2%) and TWD (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-1.7%), MXN (-1.5%) and BRL (-1.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, at 4.35%.
The central bank noted that further monetary policy tightening would “depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks”.
The bank will continue to pay attention to developments in the global economy and trends in domestic demand.
In addition, the outlook for inflation and the labour market will be considered for future decisions.
The board remains determined in bringing inflation down to the bank’s inflation target.

In China, the Caixin services PMI increased to 51.5 in November, from 50.4 in October.
New orders mainly drove the increase in November by growing at the fastest pace since August.
The composite PMI was also up in November, to 51.6, from 50 in October.
This data contrasts with the official PMI data which came out last week; the PMI data showed that both manufacturing and services shrank in November.

US labour data is in the spotlight this week; the week kicks off with the JOLTS job openings data for October.
The JOLTS job openings for October are likely to have fallen to 9.3 million, from 9.553 million in September.
Skilled services industries are likely to be the primary source of job openings in October.
Less-skilled industries, which includes the leisure and hospitality industry, will likely resume their decline after a temporary reprieve in September.
The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers is expected to come in at 1.44 in October, from 1.50 in September.
Non-farm payrolls (NFP), due out on Friday, are expected to have increased solidly in November following a resolution to the United Auto Workers (UAW) strikes.

The US ISM services gauge likely increased in November, to 52.3, from 51.8 in October.
The US S&P Global services and composite PMI for November (final estimate) is also due out today.
The services PMI is expected to have increased to 50.8 in November, from 50.6 in October.

Locally, GDP growth for Q3:23 is in the spotlight today and is expected at 0% q/q (sa), from 0.6% q/q (sa) in Q2:23.
On a y/y basis, GDP growth is expected at -0.1% in Q3:23, from 1.6% y/y in Q2:23.
The industry-wide PMI for November is also due out today; the index is currently below the 50pt benchmark, at 48.9.
Eskom: Stage 3 loadshedding will be in place until 4pm today; Stage 4 loadshedding will follow thereafter until 5am tomorrow.

Brent crude oil is currently at $78.00/bbl; ($78.03/bbl*).
Gold is at $2031/oz ($2025/oz*).
SA CDS 234bps*, Brazil 145bps* and Turkey 335bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.24%*, German bund at 2.35%* and SA 10-year generic at 11.23%*, SA’s R2030 at 9.94%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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