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The SA Daily 27 February 2018

PSCE to have moderated

Elna Moolman

  • We await private sector credit extension (PSCE) data for January due out tomorrow morning. We expect PSCE growth to have moderated to 6.0% y/y in January, from 6.7% y/y in December.
  • December growth was boosted by a large valuation-induced jump in the financial investments component but the ‘loans and advances’ growth component remained weak, at 5.2% y/y in December. However, our view is that the December data did not account for the important political change at the end of 2017.
  • We believe that even the January 2018 data might not yet reflect the economic impact of political developments. The January 2018 PSCE data will probably not yet give a good indication of the strength of the economic recovery in 2018. Towards the latter part of 2017, there was already some recovery evident in household credit growth, and we expect that it will gain momentum over the course of 2018 (for detail see Macro Weekly of 25 February, by Elna Moolman).

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