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In the loop 20 November 2023

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.25, after closing stronger on Friday (R18.35/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the THB (+1.1%), TWD (+0.5%) and BGN (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers, the BRL (-0.8%), CLP (-0.4%) and RUB (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up. 
  • In Asia, Japan’s CPI for October is scheduled for release on Friday and will likely confirm cost-push inflation as picking up again. 
  • CPI is expected to come in at 3.4% y/y in October, from 3.0% y/y in September.
  • Core CPI is expected to come in at 2.9% y/y in October, from 2.8% y/y in September.
  • After October’s surprise hike, Bank Indonesia will probably leave rates unchanged this Thursday.
  • The Central Bank of Sri Lanka will likely cut its key rates this Friday.
  • UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is due to announce the Autumn Statement on Wednesday.
  • He is likely to have limited scope to ease fiscal policy meaningfully in this budget. 
  • The ECB’s October monetary policy meeting minutes, due out on Thursday, will be closely watched for any lingering support for additional tightening.
  • Several central banks will meet this week to decide on rates.
  • Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to keep rates on hold, at 4.0%.
  • Turkey’s central bank will meet on Thursday and will likely hike its benchmark interest rate by 250 bps, to 37.5%.
  • The Eurozone composite PMI for November, due out on Thursday, will provide further insight into the extent to which downside risks to the economy from monetary tightening have been materialising.
  • The UK composite PMI for November, also due out on Thursday, is expected to remain in recessionary territory for a fourth consecutive month.
  • The US FOMC minutes of the 31 October to 1 November meeting are scheduled for release on Wednesday. 
  • The minutes will likely shed light on why the policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments were relatively dovish despite strong economic data. 
  • Existing home sales for October, due out on Tuesday, likely declined in October after pending home sales, which leads existing sales by a month or two, declined by an average of 3% from August to September.
  • The University of Michigan sentiment index for November is due out on Wednesday; sentiment is likely to have increased.
  • US markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.
  • Locally, the October CPI is due out on Wednesday and is expected to come in at 5.6% y/y, from 5.4% y/y in August.
  • Core CPI is expected to come in at 4.2% y/y in October, from 4.5% y/y in September.
  • The SARB will meet this week to decide on monetary policy and is largely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged, at 8.25%.
  • The SARB’s leading indicator for September is scheduled for release tomorrow; the index increased to 110.9 in August.
  • The BER’s business index for Q4:23 is also on the cards tomorrow; the index is likely to have increased to 38, from 33 in Q3:23.
  • Eskom: Stage 2 loadshedding is currently in place until 4pm; Stage 3 will be implemented then until 5am tomorrow.
  • Brent crude oil is up this morning, and down by 5.5% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 8.7% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $81.16/bbl; ($80.61/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1982/oz ($1980/oz*).
  • SA CDS 241bps*, Brazil 153bps* and Turkey 345bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.43%*, German bund at 2.58%* and SA 10-year generic at 11.32%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.05%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close. 

Key events and data: 

  • 17h00: US leading index (October)

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