In the loop 12 November 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.97/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.96/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+2.2%) and TRY (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the ZAR (-2.0%), PLN (-1.5%) and HUF (1.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

India’s CPI for October likely spiked after heavy rainfall destroyed crops and delayed harvesting, pushing up food prices.
CPI is likely to come in at 5.9% y/y in October, from 5.5% y/y in September.

The UK ILO unemployment data for September is scheduled for release today; the unemployment rate is likely to have edged up to 4.1%.
Wage gains are likely to continue moving in the right direction, from the BOE’s perspective.
Wage growth, excluding bonuses, will likely come in at 4.7% y/y in the three months to September, from 4.9% y/y in the three months to August.
The BOE’s forecast for wage growth is 4.8%.
A low response rate to the survey, however, continues to distort the results.

Several ECB policymakers are due to comment on this region’s economy and monetary policy later today.
Investors will keep a close eye on comments for guidance on whether the ECB is likely to trim its benchmark interest rate for a fourth time since June.

The US NFIB small business optimism index for October, due out today, is likely to have improved, to 92.0, from 91.5 in September.
After the 2016 election when Donald Trump claimed victory as US president, the optimism index increased by 3.5 pts in November and 7.4 pts in December, to 105.9 in January 2017.
The increase in sentiment then came on the back of the tax-overhaul proposals in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
The TCJA is due to expire next year; the new administration is expected to make some of the previous tax changes permanent.
Further corporate tax cuts are also likely, which may support the business optimism index.

Locally, the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for Q3:24 is due out today; the unemployment rate is likely to come in at 32.8% in Q3:24, from 33.5% in Q2:24.
Manufacturing production for September is also due out today; production is expected to have increased by 1.1% y/y in September, after having declined by 1.2% y/y in August.
On a m/m basis, manufacturing production is likely to have increased by 0.9% in September, following a 0.6% decline in August.

Brent crude oil is currently at $71.69/bbl; ($71.83/bbl*).
Gold is at $2613/oz ($2612/oz*).
SA CDS 179bps*, Brazil 157bps* and Turkey 255bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.30%*, German bund at 2.32%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.39%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.44%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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