In the loop 07 August 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is steady this morning, at R16.35/$, after closing slightly weaker yesterday (R16.35/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.8%), THB (+0.5%) and BRL (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the HUF (-1.0%), RUB (-0.6%) and CZK (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: Iran reportedly attacked a “hostile target” in the Strait of Hormuz as negotiations with Oman continued over a shipping agreement that could restrict access for US vessels.
Meanwhile, President Trump reiterated his view that the war could end “pretty soon”, adding that negotiations over the waterway were progressing well.

China recorded a sizeable trade surplus of US$112.5bn in July, although this narrowed from US$125.6bn in June.
Exports increased more than expected in July, by 23.9% y/y, supported by robust global demand for high-tech products linked to the ongoing AI infrastructure boom.
Semiconductor exports nearly doubled from a year earlier and overall high-tech exports surged more than 40%.
This highlights the growing importance of advanced manufacturing to China's export sector.
Imports also increased sharply by 27.5% y/y, albeit down from June, reflecting continued domestic demand for industrial inputs and commodities.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem commented today that US monetary policy should continue to place meaningful restraint on inflation rather than tolerate above-target price pressures in anticipation of future productivity gains from AI and other technological advances.
Musalem warned that inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target and that the risks are skewed towards inflation remaining elevated over the next year or longer.
He argued that keeping policy too accommodative to support productivity growth would be a mistake, as it could undermine the Fed's credibility and risk de-anchoring inflation expectations.
He noted that the Fed's key contribution to long-term growth is maintaining price stability, rather than using monetary policy to boost productivity.
Musalem noted that he favoured a 25 bps rate hike at the Fed's July meeting.

The US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for July is expected to provide an important gauge of whether June's sharp slowdown in employment growth was temporary or signals a more persistent cooling in the labour market.
NFP are likely to have increased by 80k in July, following a 57k increase in June.
The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged at 4.2% in July.
There is likely to be modest rebound in payroll growth during July rather than another exceptionally weak outcome.
The consumer credit data for June is also on the cards today.

Locally, the SARB's gross and net reserves for July are scheduled for release today.
Gross reserves slipped to $74.12bn in June, from $76.58bn in May, while net reserves fell to $71.34bn in June, from $73.47bn in May.

Brent crude oil is currently at $83.75/bbl; ($82.49/bbl*).
Gold is at $4269/oz ($4239/oz*).
SA CDS 122bps*, Brazil 121bps* and Turkey 228bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.67%*, German bund at 3.14%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.56%*, SA's R2035 at 8.37%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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