In the loop 13 November 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.75/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.78/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the PEN (+0.2%), KRW (+0.2%) and RUB (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-1.3%), ZAR (-1.1%) and CLP (-1.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic signalled that further monetary tightening is likely as inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran war continue to unfold.
Vujcic noted that while the ECB has already raised interest rates twice, the second-round effects on consumer prices are only expected to emerge next year.
He cautioned that renewed upward pressure on commodity prices could further fuel inflation, reinforcing the need for additional policy tightening.
Vujcic stressed that the direction of monetary policy remains unchanged, adding to expectations that the ECB will raise its deposit rate again in December.

The Eurozone GDP data for Q3:26 (second estimate) is on the cards tomorrow; growth is expected to have increased by 0.4% q/q in Q3:26, matching Q2:26's increase.
Employment data for Q3:26 is also due out today.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that the Fed needs to act to contain inflation before the US economy overheats, making price pressures increasingly difficult to control.
Goolsbee cautioned that inflation was approaching levels that have historically proved challenging for central banks to reverse.
His comments come as inflation has accelerated across a broad range of categories in recent months, remaining above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years.
Goolsbee warned that the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure could be fuelling excessive demand and increasing the risk of economic overheating.

Fed Governor Michael Barr warned the rapid adoption of AI could trigger significant short-term disruptions in the US labour market, potentially displacing workers and exacerbating income inequality.
While widespread job losses have yet to materialise, Barr noted emerging signs of AI replacing workers in certain sectors, particularly affecting younger and less-experienced employees.
He cautioned that the speed of AI adoption would be critical, as rapid technological change could make it more difficult for displaced workers to transition into new roles. Barr emphasised the importance of investing in job creation, worker retraining and other measures to mitigate the potential economic and social consequences.
He also warned that the concentration of AI-related gains among a small number of companies and investors could further widen inequality.

US existing home sales fell by 5.5% m/m in October, after having increased by a revised 1.0% m/m in September,
Sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 3.75 million units, the lowest level since August 2010 and below market expectations of 3.85 million units.
Sales declined by 8.8% y/y, reflecting the continued impact of elevated mortgage rates and high property prices on housing affordability.
Housing inventory increased by 1.3% m/m to 1.59 million units, equivalent to 5.1 months of supply, the highest since November 2015.
Despite weaker demand, the median existing home price rose by 0.4% y/y, indicating persistent price pressures.

The US PPI for October is scheduled for release today and is expected to come in 6.6% y/y, from 6.3% y/y in September.
On a m/m basis, PPI is likely to have increased by 0.4% in October, after having increased by 1.3% m/m in September.

Brent crude oil is currently at $95.54/bbl; ($95.82/bbl*).
Gold is at $3919/oz ($3877/oz*).
SA CDS 121bps*, Brazil 145bps* and Turkey 233bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 5.12%*, German bund at 3.34%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.68%*, SA's R2035 at 8.48%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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