In the loop 23 November 2021

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R15.86/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R15.82/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+2.2%), COP (+0.6%) and BRL (+0.3%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.8%), HUF (-1.2%) and TRY (-1.2%) were amongst the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 258.44 million, while the death toll has surpassed 5.17 million; recoveries are at 233.91 million.
The US is unlikely to impose lockdown measures such as those in some EU countries.
The EU is reviewing its Covid digital certificates and travel policy within and outside the bloc as member nations take varying steps to counter the latest wave.
EU leaders’ summit next month will discuss vaccine hesitancy; there have been street protests in several member states in recent days.
Austria may impose fines for those who refuse being vaccinated once mandatory vaccination kicks in next year.
Cases in Singapore fell for a 5th straight day as the country moves to relax some restrictions.

US existing home sales rose unexpectedly in October, to a 9-month high to an annualised 6.34 million, from 6.29 million in September.
The increase comes as more buyers take advantage of stronger job growth and low mortgage rates.
The gain in October purchases reflected stronger results in the upper-end market.
Sales of cheaper properties were restrained because of a lack of inventory.
Total sales are above pre-pandemic levels and are on track to exceed 6 million this year, the strongest since 2006.

Manufacturing and services PMI data releases for November are due out for several countries today — likely a mixed bag of results.

SA has the 18th highest caseload, at 2.930 million; 312 new cases were reported yesterday.
Active cases are at 19,109; the Western Cape leads the way, with 6,326 active cases, followed by KwaZulu-Natal with 3,075.
Covid-19 deaths rose by 10 yesterday, to 89,584; 2.821 million people (or 96.3%) have recovered from the virus.
19.126 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 13,473 tests were conducted yesterday.
The SA positivity rate is 2.3%.
24.754 million vaccines have been administered in SA to date; 11,083 vaccines were administered yesterday.
Scientists foresee a 4th wave of infections in December.
It is likely to be less severe than previous resurgences because over 34% of adults are fully vaccinated.
About 60-70% of the population may also have already been infected.

Brent crude oil is down this morning, and up by 53.1% year-to-date.
The gold price is down marginally this morning, and down by 4.8% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $79.31/bbl; ($79.70/bbl*).
Gold is at $1807/oz ($1808/oz*).
SA CDS 211bps*, lower than Brazil 238bps* and Turkey 441bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 1.62%*, German bund at -0.301%* and SA 10-year generic at 10.0%*, SA’s R186 at 8.04%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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