In the loop 06 December 2021

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.06/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.08/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the MXN (+0.4%), TRY (+0.3%) and CZK (+0.2%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the COP (-0.7%), ZAR (-0.7%) and CLP (-0.4%) were amongst the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down while the Shanghai Composite is up.

Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 266.12 million, while the death toll has surpassed 5.27 million; recoveries are at 239.75 million.
The US has 49.96 million cases, accounting for 19% of global cases; the US death toll is 808, 763.
India has 34.64 million cases and 473,537 deaths; Brazil has 22.14 million cases and 615,674 deaths.
The US, with the Omicron variant now prevalent in at least 17 states, is re-evaluating its travel ban on eight southern African countries.
The UK expects all incoming travellers, regardless of vaccination status, to take a pre-flight Covid test.
France is aiming to avoid implementing further restrictions.
Italy is cracking down on its small minority of the unvaccinated.
Moderna has indicated that there’s a “real risk” that existing vaccines may be less effective against the Omicron variant.
Globally, more than 8.18 billion doses have been administered across 184 countries at a rate of 36.1 million doses a day.

US CPI for November on Friday is expected to have picked up to 6.7% y/y, from 6.2% y/y in October.
Higher energy costs, supply chain challenges, transportation bottlenecks, robust consumer demand and higher wages contributed to price growth.
UK GDP data for October on Friday is set to show a slight moderation.
Germany's industrial output and factory orders, out tomorrow, will provide detail on the effects of supply chain issues on its manufacturing sector.
Inflation in Russia may have accelerated in November.
The RBA and RBI this week will likely both keep rates steady.
Japan will likely downwardly revise its Q3:21 GDP contraction.

Africa’s Covid-19 cases are at 8.82 million; fatalities are at 222,277.
Morocco has 950,591 reported cases, Nigeria 214,622, Ghana 130,920, Kenya 255,437.
Senegal and Tunisia have reported their first cases of the Omicron variant.

SA has the 18th highest caseload, at 3.031 million; 11,125 new cases were reported yesterday.
Active cases are at 83,584; Gauteng leads the way, with 55,492 active cases, followed by KwaZulu-Natal with 7,378.
Covid-19 deaths rose by 1 yesterday, to 89,966; 2.858 million people (or 94.3%) have recovered from the virus.
19.761 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 46,708 tests were conducted yesterday.
The SA positivity rate is at 23.8%.
26.348 million vaccines have been administered in SA to date; 22,145 vaccines were administered yesterday.
SA data is not showing a resulting surge in hospitalisations due to the Omicron variant.
Authorities are, however, ready for a patient influx.

The spotlight is on Q3:21 GDP this week, which is expected to have contracted by 0.8% q/q, from a 1.2% q/q increase in Q2:21.
The SARB’s November gross and net reserves are due out tomorrow.
The SACCI business confidence for November and October retail sales data are due on Wednesday.
The October mining production, due on Thursday, likely declined further, by 0.9% y/y in October, from August’s 3.4% y/y decline.
Manufacturing production, also due on Thursday, likely contracted by 1.5% y/y in October, after having increased by 1.3% y/y in September.

Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 37.8% year-to-date.
The gold price is down marginally this morning, and down by 6.1% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $71.36/bbl; ($69.88/bbl*).
Gold is at $1782/oz ($1783/oz*).
SA CDS 229bps*, lower than Brazil 236bps* and Turkey 539bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 1.34%*, German bund at -0.388%* and SA 10-year generic at 10.01%*, SA’s R186 at 7.95%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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