In the loop
Shireen Darmalingam
What you should know this morning:
- The rand is stronger this morning, at R15.37/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R15.39/$*).
- EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+0.7%), THB (+0.5%) and PHP (+0.3%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the TRY (-2.4%), RUB (-2.1%) and CZK (-0.9%) were amongst the biggest losers.
- Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
- The UK is expected to abandon its Covid passes as the Omicron wave subsides.
- The UK has confirmed that the self-isolation period will be cut in England from seven to five full days.
- This comes on increasing pressure from business and health sectors over the impact of Omicron-linked absences from work.
- Canada will impose a vaccine requirement on all truckers entering from the US, which would further affect supply chains.
- Norway is scaling back some infection restrictions as it moves to a new phase of the pandemic.
- Growth in China’s exports and imports moderated in December.
- Exports increased by 20.9% y/y in December, from November’s 20% y/y increase.
- Exports outperformed expectations for most of 2021; however, shipments slowed on a decrease in overseas demand for goods, and the high costs hit exporters.
- Imports increased by just 19.5% y/y in December, from a 31.7% y/y increase in November.
- The trade balance increased to $94.46bn, from $71.72bn in November.
- The trade surplus surged to a record $676bn in 2021.
- UK and Eurozone trade data releases are due today.
- SA has the 18th highest caseload, at 3.546 million; 5,920 new cases were reported yesterday.
- Active cases are at 106,883; KwaZulu-Natal leads the way, with 32,709 active cases, followed by the Western Cape with 21,813.
- Covid-19 deaths rose by 159 yesterday, to 92,989; 3.346 million people (or 94.4%) have recovered from the virus.
- 21.695 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 41,438 tests were conducted yesterday; the SA positivity rate is 14.3%.
- 28.782 million vaccines have been administered in SA to date; 86,351 vaccines were administered yesterday.
- 15.976 million people, or 40.14% of the adult population, have been fully vaccinated.
- Brent crude oil is down this morning, and up by 8.5% year-to-date.
- The gold price is up this morning, and down by 0.2% year-to-date.
- Brent crude oil is currently at $84.39/bbl; ($84.47/bbl*).
- Gold is at $1827/oz ($1820/oz*).
- SA CDS 199bps*, Brazil 212bps* and Turkey 543bps*.
- Yields: US 10yr at 1.70%*, German bund at -0.090%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.84%*, SA’s R186 at 7.78%*.
* Denotes yesterday’s close.
Key events and data:
- 09h00: UK monthly GDP (November), manufacturing and industrial production (November), trade balance (November)
- 12h00: Eurozone trade balance (November)
- 15h30: US retail sales (December)
- 16h15: US manufacturing and industrial production (December)
- 17h00: US business inventories (November), University of Michigan sentiment index, 1 yr and 5-10 yr inflation expectations (January)
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